"Ukraine Telecommunications Report Q1 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 12, 2011 - PRLog -- In this update of BMI's Ukraine Telecommunications Market Report, we extended our forecasts for the country's fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets through to the end of 2015. We have also taken the opportunity to include more realistic historical data for internet subscribers and 3G mobile subscribers, which have also shaped our forecast trends.

The merger of VimpelCom and Kyivstar as a new VimpelCom unit was delayed until October 2010 and, even then, will take several months to conclude. Data for both companies for Q310 were not available at the time of writing and, even when the data becomes available, may not treat the companies as a merged operation. We may therefore need to revisit our mobile forecasts again in succeeding quarters. Turkcellowned Astelit also recorded three quarters of negative growth as it rid itself of unprofitable inactive subscribers. It lost 1.9mn subscribers in Q310, offsetting the return to positive growth reported by the other operators on the market. We expect further reductions at Astelit in Q410, so we estimate an overall decline of 0.4% for 2010. Although we believe the market could return to growth in future, we continue to expect growth to be minimal, verging on flat. Our revised long-term forecast envisages a mobile subscriber base of 56.35mn and a penetration rate of 127% at the end of 2015.

We have amended slightly our existing broadband figures for 2008 and 2009 and believe the market grew by 42.5% in 2009 to give a total of 2.28mn subscribers, a little lower than we had previously reported. Data for the first half of 2010 showed equally strong growth rates, aided by increased xDSL penetration and more competitive pricing. Therefore, we believe the market grew to serve 3.209mn subscribers by the end of 2010. Taking into account the likelihood that mobile broadband will begin to come to the fore, we forecast a broadband subscriber base of 5.486mn at the end of 2015 with a penetration rate in excess of 12%.

Our forecasts for the country's fixed-line market have not altered. These are based on the assumption that the sector shrank by 1.1% in 2009 and this is the start of a downward trend after years of slow but steady growth. The negative growth in 2009 appears to have resulted from several factors, including the impact of economic recession, the growth of fixed-to-mobile substitution and the increasing popularity of voice over internet protocol (VoIP) services. Fixed-line incumbent operator Ukrtelecom bore the brunt of fixed-line losses in 2009 and will likely continue doing so. Over the next five years we expect a 1% annual average rate of decline, reaching 12.11mn lines by 2015.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/106534_ukraine_telecommunicati...


Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Mobile Industry SWOT
- Ukraine Fixed-Line/Internet Industry SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
- Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment
- Central And Eastern Europe
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Rankings
- Ukraine
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Table: No. Of Net Additions ('000)
- Table: Ukrainian Mobile Market, Q310
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content
- Regional Outlook
- Country Outlook
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Selected VAS Services
- Mobile Operator Data
- Table: Ukraine Mobile Market
- Table: Kyivstar
- Table: MTS
- Table: VimpelCom
- Table: Astelit
- Fixed Line
- Table: Ukrtelecom Revenues From Sale Of Telecommunications Services (UAH mn)
- Broadband
- Table: Ukrainian Fixed Broadband Operators' Subscriber Growth ('000)
- Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
- Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2010
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
- Legislation And Market Liberalisation
- Regulatory Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Table: Key Players - Ukraine Telecoms Market
- Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2005-2009
Company Monitor
- Ericsson Nikola Tesla
- Table: Ericsson Nikola Tesla Financial Performance, 2007-2010 (HRK mn)
- Table: Ericsson Nikola Tesla Recent Contract Wins in Emerging Europe
- Operator Profiles
- Ukrtelecom
- Kyivstar
- MTS Ukraine
- Astelit
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
- Fixed Line
- Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
- Broadband
- Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
- Mobile
- Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
- Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
- Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Table: Ratings Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.