Hungary Freight Transport Report Q1 2011: New research report available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 6, 2011 - PRLog -- In mid-October 2010, Hungary and Romania commissioned the 47km Arad-Szeged gas pipeline linking the two countries. The link will form part of the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector (AGRI), and will be used to pump Azerbaijani gas westwards. A statement released by the state-owned Hungarian oil and gas company MOL Chief Executive Zsolt Hernadi said: 'MOL Group thinks that single gas market in Central and Eastern Europe can be created on the basis of regional cooperation. The standard platform, based on the infrastructure, may become the basis for the purchase of gas from new sources in the region. The Arad-Szeged pipeline increases competition in the market. It will provide a number of advantages for both traders and consumers.'

Going into 2011, the ruling centre-right Fidesz party is looking comfortably in control of the political scene, having effectively received a vote of confidence in the October 2010 municipal elections when it won control of 22 out of 23 cities. BMI thinks there will be continuity in economic policy at least until the next set of elections due in 2014, a factor that will be beneficial for the freight transport sector. We have three core economic views. First there remains a large stock of private sector debt that will limit household spending and imports in the medium term. Second, the weak forint will continue supporting exports going forward. And third, external demand will improve at a faster rate than internal demand, which will also be held back by fiscal austerity as the government seeks to reduce the public sector deficit to under 3% of GDP.

Bearing in mind all these factors, BMI is forecasting GDP growth of 2.3% in 2011, coming after the sharp 6.3% contraction in the global recession year of 2009 and a virtually standstill year in 2010, when the economy grew by only 0.8%. Looking forward, we see only moderate improvement in 2012 (+2.6%). For the five-year period running up to 2015, average annual GDP growth will come out at a subdued 2.7%.

As attention one more focuses on recapitalising Malev Airlines, BMI is predicting 6.0% growth in airfreight volume to 59,720 tonnes in 2011. This will come after two years of steep contraction in 2008 and 2009 (the fall in volume in 2009 alone was 13.4%) and a moderate recovery in 2010 (+4.1%).

The government is considering the introduction of an electronic motorway toll system. Cargo hauled by road will grow by 5.2% in 2011 to reach 250.395mn tonnes, following an 11.1% contraction in 2009 and a partial 3.6% recovery in 2010.

The future of financially-troubled Rail Cargo Hungaria (RCH) hung in the balance in late 2010. We expect Hungarian rail freight volume to experience low growth in 2011, rising by only 1.8% to reach 51.219mn tonnes. This will come after two contrasting years which virtually cancelled each other out: a plunging contraction of 17.7% in recession-dominated 2009 and an equally marked bounce back in 2010, when volume jumped by 18.6%.

BMI is forecasting 2.5% volume growth in waterway freight to 8.307mn tonnes in 2011, still representing a very small proportion of the total freight business in the country. Average annual growth to 2015 will be a modest 2.0%.

We expect Hungarian trade to grow by 7.1% in real terms in 2011, coming after a 5.6% recovery in 2010. This means that trade will have made up for the setback experienced in 2009 when real value plunged by 12.2%. In 2011, exports will be slightly ahead, of imports, but the difference will be very small in percentage terms. Over the next five years trade will grow by an average annual 5.2% in real terms, ahead of GDP. Exports will average 5.4%, versus 5.0% for imports. In nominal terms, exports will grow 9.9% in 2011 to a total of US$120.4bn, while imports will grow by 9.8% to US$108.4bn.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Hungary Freight Transport Industry SWOT
- Hungary Political SWOT
- Hungary Economic SWOT
- Hungary Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rating
- Table: Europe Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
- Hungary's Freight Industry Rating
- Hungary Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
- Transport Intensity Index
Industry Trends and Developments
- Multimodal/Logistics
- Road
- Rail
- Air
Market Overview
- Infrastructure
- Road
- Rail
- Air
- Water
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Industry Forecast
- Macro
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2007-2015
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2007-2015
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2015
- Inland Waterway Freight
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2007-2015
- Trade Overview
- Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2015
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2015
- Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2008
- Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2008
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Hungary - Economic Activity
Company Profile
- Waberer's Rt
- MaV (Magyar llamvasutak) Company Rt
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.