"Belarus Business Forecast Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Jan. 4, 2011 - PRLog -- Lukashenko On Course For Another Term The Q1 2011 Belarus Business Forecast Report paints a relatively strong picture for the economy over the the course of our forecast period. Indeed, we now foresee real GDP growth rising to 7.0% in 2011, up from 6.3% in 2010. While the industrial sector and exports are set to continue powering growth in the medium term, the longer term outlook remains dependent on the country's ability to draw in foreign direct investment. The government's commitment to economic reforms and privatisation of state assets will pay dividends in this respect, but we maintain that a poor business environment will continue to drag on the country's overall potential to draw in foreign interest.

Presidential elections set for December 19 in Belarus will more than likely see incumbent Alexander Lukashenko return for a fourth term in power. The election will likely go in his favour owing to his influence over key institutions, efforts to diversify energy dependence away from Russia, the fractured nature of the opposition, and recent public sector wage hikes. That said, we highlight increased incidences of popular protest in recent weeks and see the potential for further unrest in the run up to polling.

With rising global liquidity set to keep commodity prices well supported over the coming months, we have raised our consumer price inflation forecast for 2010 in Belarus to 10.5% from 9.0% previously. Moreover, strong economic growth, a weakened currency, higher energy pricing contracts and continued monetary expansion will see to it that price pressures remain well supported over the medium term, with inflation set to remain in double-digits in 2011.

With Belarus's current account deficit on track to hit 11.3% of GDP in 2010, we believe that the Belarusian ruble will see further weakness over the course of 2011. Indeed, Belarus cannot sustainably finance such large current account deficits into the medium term - especially if a further IMF Stand-By Arrangement is not put in place beyond the country's existing US $3.5bn support facility. A distinct need to bolster exports and slow import growth in order to trim Belarus's current account deficit will necessitate an official devaluation of the ruble in 2011.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.