Market Report, "South Africa Metals Report Q1 2011", published

Jan. 4, 2011 - PRLog -- South African metals producers will face slower rates of growth over the medium term, but the recovery in 2010 will be sustainable, according this latest South Africa Metals Report from BMI.

In 2010, BMI estimates that crude steel output will grow 13.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 8.5mn tonnes and hot-rolled output 13.4% to 6.2mn tonnes, boosted by the economic recovery and export growth. South Africa represents 50.9% of total African crude steel output, with all the other major producers located in North Africa. These increases reversed most of the losses of 2009, although overall capacity utilisation rates are still low and margins are poor. It will take until 2014 for the South African steel industry to exceed its peak 9.72mn tonnes production in 2006 and BMI forecasts output exceeding 10mn tonnes again for the first time in 2015. However, rising domestic electricity prices and a strongly priced rand will undermine competitiveness in the South African metals industry and present downside risks.

Some segments are more promising than others, but dependent on the market trends in Asia. South African ferrochrome prices were on the rise from end-2010 due to a bullish stainless steel market leading to shortages, as well as a strong rand, higher power costs and problems relating to labour disputes and transportation. Although ferrochrome prices in Q410 were less than half the level seen before the economic crisis of September 2008, high trading levels have prompted analysts to forecast a bullish market in 2011 and a swift return to pre-crisis levels by mid-year. China and India's growing steel industries are driving global ferrochrome demand. In terms of domestic stainless production, BMI's forecasts for South African output remain bullish following an anticipated record year in 2010 - recovery is likely to be sustained throughout 2011 and 2012.

While stainless steel looks set for growth despite high costs and the strong rand, other segments are likely to show slower growth. Rebar grew by an estimated 7.8% in 2010 to a forecast 704,000 tonnes with output tailing off in H2, although healthy construction activity in the run-up to the 2010 FIFA World Cup ensured construction-related material did not experience the level of decline seen in other segments. Aside from lower rates of construction activity, producers will also face capacity constraints and lower priced imports, thereby limiting growth. As we expect construction activity to die down following the World Cup, we believe construction industry growth will even out at 3-4% per year through to 2015. This represents a slowdown in the industry compared with recent years, with average growth of 11.5% y-o-y between 2005 and 2008. A dearth of new infrastructure projects, coupled with a decline in residential building activity has been cited as the cause of the slowdown. Despite a massive infrastructure investment plan (ZAR846bn/US$113bn), the speed at which it will be implemented is causing concern over future demand for long steel and aluminium products, as the three-year timeline (2010-2012) looks unlikely to be met.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/106465_south_africa_metals_rep...


Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Commodities Forecast
- Aluminium
- Table: BMI's Aluminium Forecasts
- Table: Aluminium, 2006-2012
- Zinc
- Table: BMI's Zinc Forecasts
- Table: Zinc, 2005-2012
- Tin
- Table: BMI's Tin Forecasts
- Table: Tin, 2006-2012
Africa Overview
- Steel
- Aluminium
- Table: Aluminium Smelters In Africa
Forecast Scenario
- Table: South Africa's Metals Industry, 2007-2015 ('000 tonnes unless stated)
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Table: South Africa - Economic Activity
Competitive Landscape
- Table: ArcelorMittal's Steel Mills In South Africa
Company Profiles
- BHP Billiton
Global Assumptions Q1 2011
- Table: Global Assumptions
- Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth % Chg Y-O-Y
- Table: Developed States, Real Gdp Growth Forecast
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
- Table: Consensus Forecasts
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education and Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market and Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.