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Follow on Google News | "Egypt Defence & Security Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market ResearchNew Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
This coming year however is more likely to be dominated by internal political considerations in the lead up to Parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2010 and the presidential election in September 2011. There is uncertainty regarding the health of Hosni Mubarak, President since 1981, and no clear picture as to the succession. In the parliamentary elections the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is expected to further consolidate its hold on power by winning back some of the seats lost to the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in the previous election. The keen interest will focus on the internal power struggle within the NDP. If the older, established guard, increases its power then their resistance to any economic reforms or opening up of the economy will prevent much needed change from taking place. On the other hand, there is a group of increasingly assertive segment of younger politicians that have strong links to the business community, and have been instrumental in pushing through economic reforms since 2004. If they are successful in challenging the present elite in the party then more change could occur somewhat more quickly, opening up opportunities in the economy and the defence equipment sector. Hosni Mubarak has no widely supported candidate to succeed him. While there has been a move to endorse his son, Gamal, this is opposed by the older faction and also, to an extent, by the military due to the son's lack of a military background. While we believe concerns surrounding the risks of a large-scale uptick in public unrest are overblown, we have nevertheless downgraded Egypt's short-term political risk rating to 59.4 (from 64.8) out of 100. Economically, we remain cautiously optimistic. Domestic demand is recovering however exports into the Eurozone, which account for some 70% of Egypt's total exports, will remain sluggish due to economic conditions in the various eurozone countries. Improving US relations has been a key part of Egypt's external security success in recent years. Barack Obama's presidency has seen a considerable change in US policy with support for Egyptian autonomy rather than imposition of foreign policies. There has also been a cooling in US relations with Israel, perhaps reducing the risk of provocative Israeli military operations in the Middle East. The country's border with the Gaza strip remains a key tension point and highlights how much Egypt's overall security situation is still tied to the vicissitudes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Cairo's construction of a steel wall, ostensibly to crack down on smuggling, along its border with Gaza and its highly publicised harassment of an aid convoy to Gaza in December 2009 are at odds with the solidarity it says it has with the Palestinian cause. Such solidarity is strongly felt by the Egyptian public and the government is therefore taking a risk by openly undermining Gaza's security and nationalist aspirations so overtly. BMI's City Terrorism Rating (CTR) system provides an at a glance assessment of the risk of a terrorist attack in a given city by weighing a number of significant measures. BMI assesses the CTR for Cairo at 62.5 out of 100 - the 10th highest of the 23 rated cities in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region. The CTR is based on BMI's detailed Terrorism Rating for the country taken as a whole and an assessment of the prevalence and threat of terrorism for the city in question. This latter assessment takes into account the frequency of past attacks, whether the city is a target for terrorist activity and the likely extent of possible future terrorist attacks. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Egypt Security SWOT - Egypt Defence Industry SWOT - Egypt Political SWOT - Egypt Economic SWOT - Egypt Business Environment SWOT Global Political Outlook - Global Hotspots - Table: Global Election Timetable, 2010 And 2011 - Latin America: More Of The Same - Western Europe - Central Europe - South Eastern Europe - Russia And The Former Soviet Union - Middle East: Mostly The Same Old Challenges - Sub-Saharan Africa: Definitive Elections Pending - Asia: Accommodating A More Powerful China - Wild Cards Global Security Outlook Middle East Security Overview - The Middle East In A Global Context - Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security - The Outlook For The Middle East Security Risk Analysis - BMI's Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings - Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index - Egypt's Security Risk Ratings - City Terrorism Rating - Table: BMI's Middle East And North Africa City Terrorism Index Political Overview Domestic Security Overview Armed Forces And Government Spending - Armed Forces - Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2008 (including conscripted) - International Deployments - Table: Egypt's Foreign Deployments - Weapons Of Mass Destruction Market Overview - Arms Trade Overview - Industry Trends And Developments - Procurement Trends And Developments Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Egypt's Armed Forces, 2007-2015 ('000 personnel) - Table: Egypt's Defence Expenditure, 2008-2015 - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Macroeconomic Forecast - Table: Egypt - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 Company Profiles - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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