"South Africa Commercial Banking Report Q1 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

Dec. 16, 2010 - PRLog -- The South African banking sector has weathered the storm of 2009 and we believe that decent growth will take place in 2010. Its attractiveness has been highlighted by recent foreign interest in Johannesburg- based Nedbank . The South African banking sector is continuing to recover from the woes of 2009, albeit weakly. The industry has generally stayed in good shape, especially when compared with many developed markets'. The aggregate capital adequacy ratio was 14.1% in December 2009, well above minimum prudential requirements. Although client loans and deposits continued to decline in year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q110, the pace of contraction slowed co mpared with Q409, likely forer unning a return to positive territory over the course of 2010.     Asset growth remains a cause for concern, at -3.9% y-o-y in March 2010, taking total banking sector assets to ZAR3,021bn (US$408bn). Notably, assets were still significantly lower than the all-time high of ZAR3,204bn (US$400bn; 139.6% of GDP) posted in Ja nuary 2009. Client loans fared a little better, falling by 2.4% y-o-y to ZAR2,280bn (US$308bn) in March, reflecting banks' continued reluctance to lend and consumers' unwillingness to borrow when there is high unemployment (25.2% in Q110) and an uncertain outlook for economic activity. Regarding th e latter, the South African economy grew by only 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q110 and our core scenario is for below trend growth of 3.0% this year.      Despite the current difficulties, we forecast a recovery for the banking sector, albeit a protracted one, in line with our forecast for below trend real GDP growth. We forecast total assets to rise by 8.0% y-o-y in 2010 following a 6.4% contraction in 2009 and 24.3% growth in 2008. Client loans are expected to expand by 4.0% in 2010 following a 2.6% contraction in 2009 and 12.3% growth in 2008, while client deposits are forecast to rise by 10.0% in 2010 after 0.4% and 16.7% growth in 2009 and 2008 respectively. This is broadly in line with the expectations of the major banks. For example, Absa , South Africa's largest consumer bank, expects 'muted' growth in 2010. Although the industry's expansion will be weak by historical standards, it will still be strong in a global context. The South African banking sector is attracting strong interest from abroad, which is testament to its potential. Nedbank, the country's fourth-large st bank, is particularly attractive, with HSBC reportedly considering a bid. A takeover of Nedbank would gr eatly increase HSBC's presence in South Africa and across the rest of the continent. South Africa provides a good base for expansion across Sub-Saharan Africa as it has the most sophisticated financial system in the region. If it took over the majority share in Nedbank, HSBC would follow the example of Barclays , which bought a 54% share in Absa in 2005. Barclays has expand Absa's domestic market in the last five years, with the number of customers rising from 7.0mn to 11.4mn and total lending increasing from ZAR327.6bn to ZAR539.7bn. That said, the rewards to Barclays shareholders were not as high as expected before the takeover and return on equity fell from 25.6% in 2005 to 15.5% in 2009.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At March 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (ZARbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT
- South Africa Political SWOT
- South Africa Economic SWOT
- South Africa Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: South Africa's Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Africa Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Ghana Banking Sector Indicators, 2007-2010
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2008-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2009-2010
South Africa Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: South Africa Economic Activity, 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In South Africa's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Registered Banks
- Table: Registered Mutual Banks
- Table: Registered Local Branches Of Foreign Banks
- Table: Banks In Final Liquidation
Company Profiles
- Standard Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Standard Bank, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- Absa Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Absa, 2004-2008 (ZARmn)
- FirstRand
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Nedbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn,unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.