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Follow on Google News | "Turkey Retail Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Turkey Retail Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
Turkey's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$883.59bn in 2011, with growth of 4.7% expected, somewhat down on 2010's 6.3%. Average annual GDP growth of 5.3% is predicted by BMI between 2011 and 2014. With the population increasing from 76.6mn in 2011 to an estimated 79.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to grow by nearly 60% to US$18,375 by the end of the period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$8,188 in 2011 to US$12,948 by 2014. Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 12.0% by the end of 2010. We forecast a drop to 10.0% in 2011, and to 8.0% by the end of the forecast period. In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 44.1% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.2% in the 20-44 age band, and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active. BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 23.9% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$52.63bn in 2011, and sales are expected to grow by more than 60% to US$84.51bn by 2014. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 33.9% by 2014. Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$20.0bn in 2011 and to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 72%, to US$34.37bn by 2014. Turkey's MGR sector is far from saturated, with room remaining in urban centres and secondary cities, as demand from a young, growing and increasingly affluent population increases. BMI forecasts that MGR's share of the overall food market will rise from 38.1% in 2011 to 40.7% by the end of the review period. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by nearly 38% from US$16.21bn in 2011 to US$25.42bn by 2014. BMI expects auto sales in Turkey to grow to nearly 668,912 units in 2011. By 2014, we expect the market to reach sales of 811,280 units, marking a near 41% increase compared with 2009. Sales of consumer electronics products are expected to increase by nearly 38%, from US$8.12bn in 2011 to US$11.14bn by the end of the forecast period. Consumer electronics spend per capita is projected to grow by nearly 50% to US$145 by 2014 on the back of rising incomes. The market offers growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (10% penetration) Meanwhile, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.34bn in 2011 to US$2.12bn by 2014, a rise of nearly 59%. Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,214bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI's macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,359bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 83% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to be sustained through to 2014. Turkey's predicted market share of 19.2% in 2011 is expected to fall slightly, to 18.6%, by 2014. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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