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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q1 2011Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
BMI does not foresee an increase in domestic ethylene or polymers capacities in the next five years. While Carbon Holdings' proposed naphtha cracker (900,000tpa ethylene and 400,000tpa propylene) with associated PE, ammonia and methanol units would significantly boost the petrochemicals industry, but we are not confident it will come online over the forecast period. Delays caused by the global recession, the financial crisis and Egypt's volatile investment climate have undermined the country's progress on petrochemicals. Consequently, the much anticipated expansion in polyolefins has not come about and Egyptian plastics converters will remain heavily dependent on imports. In 2010, Egypt had ethylene capacity of 300,000tpa with PP and PE capacities at 200,000tpa and 225,000tpa respectively. We do not believe EHC's proposed complex near Suez will come online by 2013, even if it does manage to secure financing in 2010. Similarly, it is doubtful that GAFI's bid for foreign investment in a US$200mn PVC plant with a capacity of 120,000tpa and a US$150mn PS plant with a capacity of 200,000tpa will materialise before 2015. The EMethanex JV was due to be ready by end-2010. The original cost of the facility, which will manufacture 1.3mn tpa of methanol, was estimated at US$620mn. This has already increased to US$950mn. Once operational, the methanol plant will turn Egypt into a net methanol exporter. Other projects include EPPC's new 350,000tpa PP facility at Port Said, which BMI believes should be fully functional in early 2011. The nitrogen-based fertiliser sector is also expected to expand, with EBIC and Agrim adding around 2.2mn tpa of ammonia production capacity by 2015. Meanwhile, a new VCM/PVC plant complex originally due to start up in February 2010 was delayed by TCI Sanmar, possibly to end-2010 or 2011. The VCM plant will have a capacity of 400,000tpa and the PVC plant will have a capacity of 200,000tpa that is scheduled to be doubled by 2012. In 2011, the Egyptian petrochemicals market will be held back by relatively low domestic demand compounded by a downturn in demand in Europe, undermining Egyptian exports. Around 70% of Egypt's exports, including products utilizing petrochemicals, are directed to the eurozone, which for the time being looks unlikely to see a strong recovery in demand, preventing a substantial contribution of trade to headline economic growth. A small pickup in exports towards Germany, France and Turkey will be counterbalanced by a decrease in the volume of exports to Southern Europe, particularly Italy and Spain. BMI's method of risk scoring in the petrochemicals sector is based on dynamic scores that reflect on future growth, as well as current capacities and the size of the internal market, along with investment risk assessments of the political, economic and regulatory environments. In the Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings, Egypt is ninth, with 42.4 points. The score has upside risks as a result of a more positive outlook from 2011 and continuing, albeit stuttering, progress on expansion of petrochemicals capacity. However, the country is unlikely to overtake South Africa and rise up the rankings any time soon. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Report Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Egypt Petrochemicals Industry SWOT - Egypt Political SWOT - Egypt Economic SWOT - Egypt Business Environment SWOT Global Overview - Petrochemicals Market Overview - Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 ('000 tonnes capacity) - Financial Results - Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2009 - Global Oil Products Price Outlook - Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions (US$/bbl) - Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl) Africa Regional Overview - Table: Africa's Gas Reserves, 2008 (bn cubic metres) - Table: Africa's Oil Reserves, 2008 (bn barrels) - Table: Africa's Cracker Capacity, 2008-2014 ('000 tpa) Egypt Market Overview Business Environment - Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings - Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings - Egypt's Business Environment Industry Trends and Developments - Upstream - Projects And News - Fertiliser - Regulations And Policy Industry Forecast Scenario - Table: Egypt Petrochemicals Sector Overview, 2007-2015 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) - Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Egypt - Economic Activity, 2007-2014 Company Monitor - EChem - Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) Glossary Of Terms - Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry - Cross Checks - Business Environment Ratings - Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale - Table: Weighting Of Indicators About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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