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Follow on Google News | Australia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Australia Oil & Gas Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region is expected to have consumed 489bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 633bcm is targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 412bcm in 2010 should reach 548bcm in 2015, implying net imports rising from around 77bcm to 84bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Australia's share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been an estimated 5.53%, while its share of production is put at 12.14%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 4.92%, with the country accounting for 14.78% of supply. For 2011, there is considerable oil demand and oil price uncertainty, but still a very strong possibility that oil will trend higher. Economic growth may have been subdued late in 2010 and into early 2011, but should still support meaningful oil demand increases. Non-OPEC supply is likely to emerge only slightly higher so, with continued OPEC discipline, the foundations have been laid for an oil price rise - albeit falling well short of the improvement seen this year. It seems likely that the 2010 average OPEC basket price will average around US$77.00 per barrel (bbl), representing a year-on-year (y-o-y) gain of approximately 27%. Progress towards at least US$80 is seen as achievable in 2011. Australian real GDP is assumed by BMI to increase by 2.3% in 2010. We are now predicting average annual GDP growth of 2.5% between 2010 and 2015. There is no state oil industry, but domestic and leading international companies are investing heavily in gas production and exports to help offset declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 640,000b/d in 2013 then falling to 595,000b/d by 2015. Consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 979,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be about 384,000b/d by 2015. Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 29.21%, with crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 640,000b/d, before falling steadily to 395,000b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 6.16%, with growth slowing to an assumed 0.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 50bcm in 2010 to a possible 110bcm by 2020. With 10-year demand growth of 30.52%, this provides export potential rising from an estimated 23bcm to 75bcm, all in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's long-term oil and gas outlook can be found at the end of this report, including regional and country-specific forecasts to 2020. Australia is again at the head of BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table, thanks to its leading position in the updated upstream BE rating that reflects its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world-class regulatory structure and solid risk environment. However, the 16-point upstream rating gap between it and second-placed India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in India. Indeed, given the greater potential for more rapid growth in both Vietnam and India, the gap should narrow over the medium term, particularly as the country risk environment improves in both countries. Australia is further down the league table in BMI's downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It now shares sixth place out of 15 with Indonesia. It could slip further down the rankings as country risk improves elsewhere in the region. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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