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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Croatia Autos Report 2011Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Croatia Autos Report 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
The performance so far in 2010 has not been a great deal better. In the first eight months of the year, sales of new passenger cars fell by a further 19.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 26,064 units. In the first six months of the year, consumer demand remained the weakest key sector of Croatia's economy, which consequently remained mired in recession, despite positive export growth. However, there are signs that the slump in household consumption - and with it, new car sales - has finally begun to bottom out. The contraction in overall household spending eased from 4.1% in the first quarter of the year, to 2.5% in the second quarter. In August 2010 (traditionally always a slow month for vehicle purchases), sales of new passenger cars rose in y-o-y terms by 9.5%, to 2,663 units, according to Poslovni.hr. While this monthly number for car sales, taken by itself, should be viewed with caution (especially given the historical thinness of the market in August), the apparent bottoming out of consumer demand signalled by the Q210 household spending figures should inspire hope that the car market will begin to pull itself out of the doldrums. For 2010 as a whole, we forecast that sales of new passenger cars will register just over 42,000 units, a further fall of around 6% from the sales level recorded in 2009. The sales in the first eight months of the year, if replicated across the whole year, would result in total sales of new passenger cars of only 39,000. However, we expect an additional 3,000 units will be sold over the last four months of the year, with the approach of Christmas providing at least a temporary fillip. Moving further forward, while we expect that growth in both the economy as a whole and household consumption will be positive in 2011, the recovery of the latter will continue to lag. Indeed, next year is likely to see exports continue to lead the recovery, which will be constrained by a very anaemic and patchy upturn in domestic demand, according to our macroeconomic desk. As a result, the recovery in car sales is unlikely to be spectacular, despite the very low base levels created by the dreadful 2009 and 2010 sales figures. For 2011 as a whole, we now predict that sales of new passenger cars will reach 44,200 units, a rise of 5% y-o-y. The recovery should then gather a degree of pace in 2012, at least in percentage terms, with a rise of 10% y-o-y. However, in absolute terms, this still only results in an annual sales figure of just below 49,000 new passenger cars for 2012. Overall, domestic demand - and, in turn, car sales - is likely to remain sluggish for some time, due to the need of both the banking sector and households to consolidate their accounts, after the credit-fuelled spending of the years up to 2008. Since Croatia is an import-driven auto market - with no significant production activity - we anticipate that trends in imports of new vehicles will largely mirror domestic sales over our forecast period. That is only likely to change in the event of a major carmaker taking a decision to establish a production/assembly facility in the country. Overall risks to Croatia's auto market forecasts are finally poised. Given reasonable stability in the local political environment (and our already bearish core scenario for consumer demand), the main negative risks are external economic shocks. A double-dip global downturn, which could be triggered by any number of factors, including a dip in Chinese domestic demand, intensified focus on the fiscal credibility of eurozone nations, or a failure of the US private sector to register a sustainable revival - could clearly result in car sales in Croatia enduring negative real growth considerably beyond the end of 2010. In terms of the main upside risk, the global economy (and in particular, the eurozone) may recover more robustly than we currently anticipate, leading to much higher Croatian exports than currently forecast, revived local business investment, higher disposable incomes and a sharper-than- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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