The Paris-based IEA, which advises the developed world, on energy policy and security also recently, predicted that crude would pass $100 dollars per barrel in 2015. "Production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing so," the agency told Regal Group International.
The IEA projections are based on the so-called “New Policies” scenario, which accounts for the broad policy commitments that have already been made public and assumes the “cautious implementation of national pledges” by countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, and to change fossil fuel subsidies. The forecast comes shortly after oil touched $87.63 per barrel recently, the highest since October 2008.
“The global outlook for oil remains highly sensitive to policy action to curb rising demand and emissions, especially in the developing world... The global economic recovery is expected to drive oil demand back up following two consecutive years of decline in 2008 and 2009," the agency informed Regal Group International.
The agency’s chief economist, Fatih Birol told reporters that in the absence of government action, oil prices would increase even faster than predicted.
"The message is clear, the price will go up, especially if consuming countries do not make changes in the way they consume oil, especially in the transport sector," Regal Group International believes he was quoted as saying.
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