"Australia Shipping Report Q1 2011" is now available at Fast Market Research

Nov. 9, 2010 - PRLog -- In October 2010 it was reported that Brisbane-based construction company Smithbridge Australia had won a contract to build a new container wharf at the Port of Brisbane in Australia. Once completed, Wharf 11 will be operated by Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), which will also operate Wharf 12, when built. According to Port of Brisbane Pty (PBPL)'s CEO Jeff Coleman, the company's investment in the facility will have reached around AUD90mn (US$86.33mn) when the wharf is built. Work on Wharf 11 will start in 2011. It is to become operational in late 2012. The Brisbane port is heavily linked to the Asia coal export market. According to the port's 2008/09 financial report, Asia accounted for 66% of the Brisbane port's total exports by destination, while coal exports accounted for 41% of the port's total exports by cargo type. Headwinds from an economic slowdown in China in 2011 could reduce profitability of the port over the short term; however, with China and India expected to see strong demand for coal imports over the long term, the Port of Brisbane will likely see upside potential in throughput levels.

After years of strong growth, BMI believes that Australia's economic outlook is becoming less encouraging, and in consequence the environment in 2011 will be tougher for the local ports and shipping sector. A number of factors are in play. Politically, following the August 2010 elections Australian Labour Party (ALP) prime minister, Julia Gillard, was leading a coalition with Greens and some conservatives, which gave her a precarious majority of only one seat. It looked unlikely that her administration would be able to launch pro-competitiveness reforms or win back the support of the business community, alienated by the controversy over the new mining tax launched by her predecessor. BMI sees other clouds on the horizon: a slowdown in China which will moderate demand for Australian commodity exports; a significant house price correction at home with negative knock on effects for domestic consumer spending, and increased bad debt write-offs. After 2.8% GDP growth in 2010 we forecast that the pace will drop quite sharply to 1.6% in 2011 and 1.8% in 2012.

For the Port of Melbourne BMI is forecasting 3.6% growth in total tonnage in 2011 to 31.38mn tonnes. This will follow a 5.6% contraction in the recession year of 2009 and a moderate 4.1% recovery in 2010. Melbourne will lead the way in terms of its box handling in 2011; we are predicting growth of 4.0% to 2.325mn 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs). At the Port of Sydney tonnage throughput, which fell by 4.7% in 2009, recovered moderately in 2010 with a 4.0% gain, but is forecast to stand still in 2011. Sydney container growth in 2011 will be negative, with a fall of 3.9% to 1.852mn TEUs.

Australia, normally a dynamic trading nation, will be quite severely affected by the 'double dip' global slowdown that BMI is anticipating will make itself felt in 2011 among leading economies such as the US and China. Consequently, our estimates point to a standstill year in the value of total Australian trade measured in real terms. The 0% change in 2011 will come after a 5.0% drop in 2011 (coinciding with the first and sharper global 'dip') and an 8.9% recovery in 2010. We forecast 2011 will see export value up by 1.4% in real terms compared with a 0.7% fall in imports as domestic consumption levels get held back. In nominal terms, exports will total US$205.8bn while imports are predicted at US$226.9bn.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Australia Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Shipping Overview
- Liquid Bulk Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Port of Sydney
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port of Melbourne
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Table: Major Port Data
- Table: Trade Overview
- Table: Key Trade Indicators
- Table: Main Import Partners
- Table: Main Export Partners
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- CSAV Shipping
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)

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