"Ukraine Commercial Banking Report Q4 2010" now available at Fast Market Research

PRLog (Press Release) - Nov. 6, 2010 - Ukraine's banking sector remains on its tentative road to recovery, with the improvement in domestic liquidity conditions and the spike in total client deposits underpinning our view that the worst is now firmly behind it. That said, our core view for the sector in 2010 remains firmly in play, as a protracted period of private sector deleveraging works against a more fundamental improvement in asset growth. We stress that the government's failure to sign a new Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF poses a significant risk to the banking sector's stability over the medium term, particularly if a more pronounced industry crisis in the eurozone emerges over the coming months.     The Ukrainian banking sector remains on its cautious road to recovery, in our view, having successfully muddled through the 2009 global financial crisis and avoided a worst case scenario. With the country's macroeconomic recovery slowly gathering momentum, we have a relatively positive view of the banking sector's ability to capitalise on the improvement in domestic political and financial market conditions since the conclusion of the presidential election in February 2010. The ongoing improvement in interbank money market rates has been particularly encouraging over the past few quarters, as increasing confidence in the underlying stability of the industry results in growing liquidity within the system. As the chart shows, the spread of 3-month KievPrime over its Euribor counterpart has narrowed to 704 basis points (bps) at the start of June from 1,733bps at the beginning of 2010. The most recent client deposit figures from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) have also been encouraging. In April 2010, the total stock of deposits in the system increased by 7.7% year- on-year (y-o-y), coming in at UAH369bn, compared to growth of 4.2% and 1.2% in March and February respectively. Total deposits in the sector are at their highest level since December 2008, when the onset of Ukraine's financial crisis led to a massive outflow of funds from the system as customers increasingly lost faith in the recovery picking up steam, we forecast client deposits to increase by 15.0% y-o-y in 2010, compared to a contraction of 6.6% in 2009. We also highlight the ongoing stabilisation in the hryvnia as a reason to remain relatively optimistic about underlying banking sector stability, with the currency having traded in the UAH7.9300/US$ area since the beginning of 2010.     Given the large outstanding stock of forex- denominated debt, the stability of the currency will remain an integral part of underpinning the health of the banking industry over the medium term. Fears of a marked depreciation of the hryvnia have fundamentally subsided, particularly in light of the massive unwinding of Ukraine's current account deficit, and currency risk has been significantly reduced in our view.

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Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (UAHbn)
- Table: Levels At July 2010
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (UAHbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Commercial Banking SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
- Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Ukraine Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Emerging Europe Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2008-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields, 2009-2010
Ukraine Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Ukraine Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Ukraine's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition of the Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Association of Ukrainian Banks Members
Company Profiles
- PrivatBank
- Table: Key Statistics For PrivatBank, 2007-2008 (UAHmn)
- Raiffeisen Bank Aval
- Table: Key Statistics For Raiffeisen Bank Aval, 2007-2008 (UAHmn)
- UkrSibbank
- Ukrsotsbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Ukrsotsbank, H109 (UAHmn)
- Ukreximbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (UAHmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Prominvestbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Prominvestbank, 2007-2008 (UAHmn)
- Nadra Bank
- Oschadbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Oschadbank, 2007-2008 (UAHmn)
- OTP Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For OTP Bank, 2007-2008 (UAHmn)
- First Ukrainian International Bank
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
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