New market study, "Kenya Power Report Q4 2010", has been published

Nov. 5, 2010 - PRLog -- In this new Kenya Power report, we forecast that the country will account for just 0.66% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2014, with efforts to diversify supply away from hydroelectricity. BMI's MEA power generation estimate for 2010 is 1,221 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.0% over the previous year (where markets were depressed by the economic slowdown). We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,463TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 19.8% between 2010 and the end of the period.

MEA thermal power generation in 2010 is estimated by BMI at 1,138TWh, accounting for 93.2% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,333TWh, implying 17.2% growth in 2010-2014 that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 91.1% - thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kenya's thermal generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2.1TWh, or 0.18% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 0.20% of regional thermal generation.

Direct burning of wood and waste materials, plus some renewables-based power generation, will have been the dominant energy source for Kenya in 2010, accounting for an estimated 78% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20% and hydro with a near 2% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,074mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 16.3% growth over the period since 2010. Kenya's estimated 2010 market share of 2.19% is set to reach 2.42% by 2014.

Kenya now shares sixth place, with Saudi Arabia, in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings. Its position is vulnerable given the modest size of the market. Growth prospects are good and the proportion of renewables is the highest in the region. However, import dependency is also high and the power sector is not particularly competitive, with limited progress towards privatisation.

BMI forecasts that Kenya's real GDP growth will average 5.32% a year between 2010 and 2014, with 2010 growth forecast to be 4.20%. The population is expected to expand from 40.9mn to 45.4mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 71% and 16% respectively. Power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 6.1TWh in 2010 to 7.9TWh by 2014, providing an improvement in market coverage on the basis of 6.5% average annual growth in electricity generation over 2010-2014. Losses of more than 1TWh during power transmission and distribution mean the market is likely to remain tight for several years.

Between 2010 and 2019, we forecast a 75.7% increase in Kenyan electricity generation, near the middle of the regional range. This equates to 34.0% growth in 2014-2019, up from 31.1% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 28.7% in 2010-2014 to 30.8% in 2014-2019, representing 68.3% for the entire forecast period. From 2014, the availability of coal-fired power is one key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 114% between 2010 and 2019. Details of the longer term BMI power forecasts can be found later in this report.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/90402_kenya_power_report_q4_20...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Kenya Power Business Environment SWOT
- Kenya Political SWOT
- Kenya Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Middle East And Africa Region
- Table: Middle East And Africa Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Middle East And Africa Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Regional Power Business Environment Rating
- Kenya's Power Rating
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Kenya's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Kenya's Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Kenya's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 (US$mn unless otherwise stated)
- Table: Kenya's Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014
- Table: Kenya's Power Costs, 2007-2014 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Kenya - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Middle East And Africa Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=9040...

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