"Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q1 2011" now available at Fast Market Research

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q1 2011", is now available at Fast Market Research
 
Nov. 2, 2010 - PRLog -- As one of the last economies in emerging Europe to enter recession,  Bulgaria will also be one of the last to exit the downturn, with  further negative growth on the way in 2010. Even though we expect a  return to positive growth in 2011, we nonetheless stress that private  sector deleveraging, limited scope for fiscal expansion and weaker  external demand will prevent economic growth returning to the 6%  range seen at the peak of the previous cycle. Moreover, given that  the government has backtracked on several major policies, we warn  that the potential for fiscal slippage and an inability to push ahead  with much-needed reforms pose a risk to economic stability over  the medium term.  Bulgaria's potential role in hosting part of the US-proposed missile  defence shield in Europe, coupled with the government's commitment  to the EU-led Nabucco pipeline, will keep relations with  Moscow tense. Though official talks with the US over the missile  defence shield have allegedly not taken place, Prime Minister Boyko  Borissov has indicated that preliminary discussions would take  place. While the administration's tougher stance towards Russia  may boost the popularity of the prime minister and his Citizens  for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party, there is a  risk of a significant deterioration in diplomatic and trade relations.  With the economy still mired in recession, external debt edging up  to more than 110% of GDP and the Greek fiscal crisis threatening to  raise borrowing costs, we warn that domestic debtors face elevated  refinancing risks. A major credit event is still a risk to our core scenario for the time being, though we warn that fears over sovereign  debts across the eurozone will continue to mount, which in turn will  exert continued pressure on Bulgaria's private sector to undergo a  painful and prolonged period of deleveraging.  Though the Bulgarian banking sector continued to expand during the  first two months of 2010, we hold to our view that the industry will  shrink this year as deleveraging and rising non-performing loans force  asset write-downs. Moreover, we expect weak corporate profitability  and high unemployment to weigh on demand for new loans. As such,  not only will banks be less able to extend new credit, but demand  for additional loans will similarly be weaker. While our core scenario  calls for a fairly smooth balance sheet adjustment, with assets as  a percentage of GDP projected to reach 106% by 2014 from 112%  in 2009, we highlight the ongoing risks posed by Greece's fiscal  and economic crisis. A major liquidity crunch in the Greek banking  sector would provide serious cause for concern in Bulgaria, where  around a quarter of foreign lending comes from banks in Greece.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/90339_bulgaria_business_foreca...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
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