Jordan Commercial Banking Report Q4 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

Oct. 30, 2010 - PRLog -- We maintain our view that the recovery in bank lending in 2010 will be modest, before picking up speed from 2010. However, despite still deteriorating loan qual ity there is very little danger of a financial crisis, especially with the government's ongoing efforts to promote stress testing and early warning systems.     The trends that we identified in the previous quarter's report have continued to play out and the outlook remains very stable, if not particularly inspiring. While international banking players head for Syria and potentially Iraq, Jordan is already mature and its banks may be the ones seeking opportunities abroad. That said, economic growth and rising personal wealth will increase deposit growth, and burgeoning home ownership should boost the loan book as well. We forecast total assets rising by 45% over 2010- 2014, at an average annual rate of 7.7%. Themes that are playing out across the Middle East can be seen in Jordan: provisioning for bad loans is eating into profits, largely thanks to the concentration of real estate loans and exposure to foreign markets.     Jordan's largest bank, Arab Bank , posted a plunge in profits of 31% year-on-year (y-o-y) to US$575.5mn in 2009, on the back of US$204mn worth of non-performing loans (NPLs) - up sharply from US$42bn of NPLs in 2008. US$100mn was related to exposure to Dubai World , which restructured its debt in May 2010.     It is unclear to what extent the Jordanian banking sector remains exposed to Dubai debt. Although the worst of the Dubai World crisis is over, there are othe r large corporations and projects in the emirate that could still default. There are also issues in the Jordanian economy that could affect loan quality. We do not share the government's confidence that real GDP will grow by 4.0-4.5% in 2010 - a view backed up by the 2.0% rate of growth in Q110, down from 2.9% in Q409. This sluggish environment could lead to further defaults over the next year or so. Banks have been traumatised by the impact of the global recession and loan growth slowed to 0.9% y-o-y in 2009 from 16.8% in 2008. At the same time, banks have been rebuilding their capital bases. Capital as a percentage of liabilities has risen from a low of 12.7% to 14.6%, and depositing more with the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) has also increased. Commercial banks' deposits at the CBJ rose from JOD5.276bn in April 2009 to JOD6.40bn in April 2010, a 21% y-o-y increase. With more money going into government bonds, which accounted for 14% of the balance sheet in 2009 (compared with 5.0% in 2004), less is being lent out.     Client loans contracted y-o-y between July and November 2009, and only managed 0.9% growth in 2009 overall. Although they have been on a steady recovery path since then, we are not sure how sustainable this will be. We forecast a small recovery in 2010 to 6.0% and leave our projections unchanged this quarter, despite the jump to 5.1% y-o-y growth in April.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/90295_jordan_commercial_bankin...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (JODbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At June 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (JODbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Jordan Commercial Banking SWOT
- Jordan Political SWOT
- Jordan Economic SWOT
- Jordan Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Jordan Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Middle East Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: GCC Banks' Net Profit (US$mn)
- Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios
- Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments in 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits, 2008-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of Per Capita Deposits, 2010 (US$)
- Table: Interbank Rates And Bond Yields
Islamic Banking Overview
Jordan Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Commercial Banking Indicators, 2007-2014
Economic Outlook
- Table: Jordan Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Jordan's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition of the Commercial Banking Universe
- List of Banks
- Table: Commercial Banks In Jordan (June 2010)
Company Profiles
- Bank of Jordan
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (JODmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Arab Banking Corporation (Jordan)
- Table: Key Statistics For Arab Banking Corporation, 2005-2009 (JODmn)
- Arab Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Arab Bank, 2006-2009 (JODmn)
- Arab Jordan Investment Bank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (JODmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=9029...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.