Recently released market study: Poland Metals Report Q4 2010

Oct. 21, 2010 - PRLog -- A weak external market, combined with the strengthening of the zloty against the euro, is posing a serious threat to the recovery of the Polish steel industry. To this extent output is showing signs of faltering, according to BMIs latest Poland Metals Report.

Over the first seven years of 2010, Polish crude steel output was up 23.4% y-o-y, to 4.78mn tonnes. However, output has struggled and after monthly production peaked at 827,000 tonnes in May it fell back to levels more typical of H210, with BMI estimating that the countrys mills were operating at just twothirds of total operational capacity. Similar trends existed in hot-rolled steel and steel tubes and pipes manufacturing. Economic uncertainty in Europe, and the strength of the zloty against the euro is hurting the Polish steel industry itself, alongside export-oriented steel consuming industries, particularly car manufacturing.

The steel industry will thus be dependent on growth in the domestic market. BMI believes that current trends do not point to a sustained recovery in 2010. We forecast that the finished steel market will grow 12.8%, to 10.2mn tonnes in 2010, albeit from a historically low base. The market should be back on track in 2011, and by 2014 should have reached 17.1mn tonnes, an increase of 47% over 2008. The appreciation of the zloty will encourage growth in imports, while rising raw material costs will put considerable pressure on margins. As such, the industry is not poised for strong growth until Q211, when we expect a return of stronger demand growth levels in the eurozone. On the upside, the construction sector as a whole is currently experiencing a boost, as in 2012 Poland - along with Ukraine - will host the UEFA European Football Championships. The situation also looks positive with the construction industry set to grow 4.6% in value in 2010, after 4.2% growth in 2009. According to data from the Polish steel association, construction activity may rise as much as 9.6%. As a result, a strengthening of demand in Poland is expected for reinforced bars, construction profiles, cold roll-formed sections and hollow sections, a situation that should be sustained over the next five years. On the downside, the positive effects of these developments on the steel market are partly outweighed by the burst in the housing bubble, which had fuelled high growth levels in construction steel until the economic crisis hit.

The countrys export-oriented automotive industry will be crucial to determining the market for flat products, which comprise 37% of hot-rolled production volume. With the demise of car-scrappage schemes in most countries in Europe, sales have fallen back to lower levels, ending the short-term increase created by the incentive packages, making the market outlook decidedly bleak. Auto production in Poland declined 3.6% y-o-y, to 867,542 units in 2009, and the latest output figures show manufacturers are still struggling to recover. The long-term growth potential in the market should take Polands total output to 1.24mn units by the end of 2014, thereby fuelling local demand for flat metal products. The ability of local industry to take advantage of this will be determined by the effect of the zlotys mediumPoland term value on competitiveness, particularly in relation to neighbouring CEE states capable of supplying the Polish automotive industry. With Polands political stability  relative to the Czech Republic and Hungary  and interest rate hikes expected in 2010, BMI expects a bullish zloty over 2010 and into 2011 that could undermine growth in Polish flat steel and aluminium, and the export-oriented industries they supply.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Poland Metals Industry SWOT
- Poland Political SWOT
- Poland Economic SWOT
- Poland Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- Quarterly Metals Views
- Table: BMIs Core Views For The Metals Industry
- Global Market Overview
- Table: Worlds Top 10 Steel Producing Countries
- Table: Recent And New Smelter Capacity
- Commodities Forecast
- Nickel
- Table: BMIs Nickel Forecasts
- Table: Nickel, 2005-2011
- Aluminium
- Table: BMIs Aluminium Forecasts
- Table: Aluminium, 2005-2011
- Copper
- Table: BMIs Copper Forecasts
- Table: Copper, 2005-2011
Regional Overview
Forecast Scenario
- Table: Polish Metals Industry, 2007-2014 (000 tonnes unless stated)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Poland - GDP By Expenditure, 2007-2015
Competitive Landscape
- Aluminium
- Steel
- Energy
Company Profiles
- Impexmetal
- ArcelorMittal Poland
- Ziomrex Group
- CMC Zawiercie SA
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global Assumptions
- Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth
- Table: Consensus Forecasts
- Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth Forecast
- Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Cross Checks
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.