Follow on Google News News By Tag Industry News News By Location Country(s) Industry News
Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Iraq Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", publishedNew Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Iraq Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010"
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed 379.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 481.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 22.1% growth. Production of 407.2bcm in 2009 should reach 588.9bcm in 2014 (+26.2%), which implies net exports rising to 108.0bcm by the end of the period. In 2010, Iraq consumes an estimated 152% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 2.49% by 2014. It contributes 1.29% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and by 2014 could account for 3.06% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. BMI is assuming a 3.4% rise in Iraq's real GDP during 2010, and we are forecasting average annual growth of 5.8% in 2010-2014. We expect estimated oil demand of 700,000b/d in 2010 to rise to 851,000b/d in 2014, depending on investment in infrastructure and the development of domestic production. International oil companies (IOCs) have signed production sharing agreements (PSAs) with the state, which should help accelerate the growth in oil output. Based on the efforts of national oil industry bodies, we are forecasting average oil production of 2.48mn b/d in 2010. June 2010 production was 2.31mn b/d, with 1.78mn b/d of exports. Further field reactivation work and the initial IOC efforts point to output of an estimated 2.90mn b/d in 2014. The government has much more ambitious targets, aiming for 0.5mn b/d annual output expansion and a long-term goal of 6.0mn b/d. However, there are major risks involving attacks on oil installations, Iraq's OPEC entitlement and the success of new energy policy in stimulating IOC investment. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Iraqi oil production of 61.6%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 4.00mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 55.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.09mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to climb to 45bcm by the end of the period. With 2010-2019 demand growth of 233%, export potential should rise to 25bcm by 2019. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Iraq ranks fourth, just ahead of Iran, in BMI's composite Business Environment ratings (BERs) table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now occupies a respectable second place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment ratings, but shares the position with the UAE and lacks the immediate potential to move higher. The country's score benefits from exceptional oil and gas output growth potential, a substantial hydrocarbons reserves base and the region's highest reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Account Phone Number