"Ukraine Power Report Q4 2010" is now available at Fast Market Research

Oct. 11, 2010 - PRLog -- The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.08% of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s regional power generation by 2014, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states. CEE power generation in 2010 will have been an estimated 2,581 terawatt hours (TWh), representing a recovery of 2.3% from the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,936TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 13.8% during the period 2010-2014.

CEE thermal power generation in 2010 was around 1,294TWh, accounting for 50.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,441TWh, implying 11.4% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.1% - in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine's thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 79.7TWh, or 6.16% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 6.06% of thermal generation.

For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2010 accounting for an estimated 37.6% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 31.1%, nuclear energy at 16.5%, with oil having an 12.5% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,472mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 13.5% growth over the period 2010-2014. Ukraine's estimated 2010 market share of 8.91% is set to ease to 8.72% by 2014. In 2010 Ukraine will have accounted for an estimated 24.54% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share lower at 23.35% by 2014.

Ukraine now holds eighth place ahead only of the Czech Republic in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating. There is no reason to expect that Ukraine will be able to mount a challenge for further promotion over the short to medium term, although Hungary and Slovakia are only two points above it. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country's electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.

BMI is now forecasting an average annual increase in Ukrainian real GDP of 4.1% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with an assumed 2010 increase of 3.8%. Population is expected to contract from 45.8mn to 44.7mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 110% and 22% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 149TWh in 2010 to 176TWh by the end of the forecast period, recovering from the dramatic 2009 economic reversal. Theoretical surplus generation is expected to rise from an estimated 28TWh in 2010 to 32TWh in 2014, assuming 3.8% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010- 2014. However, the country's transmission and distribution systems are in need of investment and maintenance, and significant quantities of generation are wasted via line losses.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 44.2%, which is above the middle of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 22.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 17.9% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 11.1% in 2009-2014 to 12.1%, representing 24.5% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 114% in hydro-power use during 2010- 2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise 20% between 2010 and 2019, with nuclear consumption up by 57%. More detail of BMI's long-term forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/87983_ukraine_power_report_q4_...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Power Business Environment SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Central and Eastern Europe
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview - Ukraine
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Central and Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings
- Ukraine's Power Rating
- Rewards
- Risks
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Ukraine's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Ukraine's Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Ukraine's Power Costs, 2007-2014
- Assumptions and Methodology
- Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Ukraine - Economic Activity
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
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Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=8798...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.