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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010Fast Market Research recommends "Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010" from Business Monitor International, now available
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will have consumed an estimated 122.9bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 165.6bcm forecast for 2014. Production of an estimated 219.5bcm in 2010 should reach 305.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 97bcm to 140bcm in 2014. In 2010, Libya will consume an estimated 5.13% of the region's gas, with its market share forecast at 5.80% by 2014. It will have contributed 7.38% to estimated 2010 regional gas production and by 2014 will account for 6.72% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Libyan real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 3.8% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 4.7% in 2010-2014. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 279,000b/d in 2010 to 320,000b/d in 2014. State-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) accounts for some 40% of oil production and all gas production, but it has a growing number of international oil company (IOC) partners contributing to a forecast rise in oil production from an estimated 1.66mn b/d in 2010 to 1.87mn b/d by 2014. The state itself has far more ambitious volume goals that may be frustrated by OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 21bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 16bcm in 2010. Consumption is expected to rise from around 6bcm to almost 10bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 11bcm. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Libyan oil and gas liquids production of 38.6%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 39.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 390,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 27bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 85.4% between 2010 and 2019, there should be export potential increasing to around 15bcm, via pipeline and in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Libya now shares fifth place with Angola in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It continues to occupy first place, this time shared with Gabon, in our updated upstream Business Environment ratings. The country's score benefits from its proven oil reserves and a region-topping oil reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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