Recently released market study: Turkey Petrochemicals Report Q4 2010

Sept. 19, 2010 - PRLog -- The Turkish plastics market is likely to recover strongly and outpace other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, according to BMI's latest Turkey Petrochemicals Report.

Private consumption will spur real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2010, up from 4.7% forecast in the previous quarter despite an expected moderation in activity expected in Q410. Lacking a broad domestic petrochemicals industry capable of fulfilling domestic needs, Turkey will create significant demand for chemicals for its own conversion industries. A vibrant consumer sector and large-scale infrastructural challenges facing Turkey over the coming years will hold the economy in good stead. This will lift the market for a broad range of segments, particularly PVC which is used in construction with house-building set to pick up as well as PP used in consumer durables and car production. Our revised growth outlook for the Turkish economy comes on the back of the unabated rise in capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector, which reached 74.7% in July, its highest level since September 2008.

BMI believes that by 2011, Turkish consumption levels should be back to pre-recession levels. However, exports to the EU will be crucial to sustained growth in Turkish demand for petrochemicals. Converters supplying to the export-oriented automotive and consumer goods industries will increase demand for basic plastics. Strong manufacturing growth indicates considerable resilience of the Turkish export sector in the face of fiscal austerity programmes initiated in Europe and appears to brush off concerns of an unwinding of inventory restocking cycles in OECD countries. With overall exports expected to grow 6.5% in 2010, Turkey's high dependence on European demand for its exports should pose no threat to export-oriented producers that demand on petrochemicals as raw material.

As for domestic production, going into 2010 Turkey's ethylene production capacity remained unchanged at 520,000tpa, providing feedstock for plants with capacities of 140,000tpa ethylene dichloride, 100,000tpa ethylene glycol, 80,000tpa ethylene oxide, 100,000tpa HDPE and 310,000tpa LDPE. Turkey has capacities of 150,000tpa PP, 150,000tpa VCM/PVC capacity, 140,000tpa PTA, 135,000tpa benzene and 80,000tpa PS. As there have been no firm new project announcements, BMI has not changed its forecasts for the petrochemicals sector.

Petkim's operating rates are likely to rise to maximum capacity in 2010 from 90% in 2009. By the end of 2009, Petkim was is a strong position, with its market share rising from 22% pre-recession to 30% during the economic crisis. Although the Turkish petrochemicals industry has coped with the recession relatively well, risks remain, namely rising crude prices and potential over-valuation of the Turkish lira. Nevertheless, Petkim is investing US$60mn in cost-reducing projects in 2010 in the drive to improve efficiency and long-term profitability. Turkish plastics production capacity reached around 5.6mn tpa in 2008 and was forecast to reach 6.5mn tpa in 2009, 11.3mn tpa in 2013 and 13mn tpa by 2014.

Turkey has risen one place to fifth place in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings this quarter, with its score rising 0.2 points to 46.8 points due to an improvement in its country risk rating amid a pick-up in the economy. This puts it 0.1 point ahead of Slovakia. Turkey's strength lies in the improvements in market risks, particularly following Petkim's privatisation in 2008, but this has been partly offset by a decline in its country risk score amid economic recession and deteriorating indicators. Foreign investment is being encouraged into downstream sectors in order to bolster the country's industrialisation.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
- SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Petrochemicals Industry SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
- Petrochemicals Market Overview
- Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2009 And 2014 ('000 tonnes capacity)
- Financial Results
- Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2009
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
European Petrochemicals Overview
- Table: Financial Results Of European Petrochemicals Producers, Q110 (EURmn)
Turkey Market Overview
- Market Structure
- Market Evolution
- Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals Sector - Cracker Capacity, 2008-2014 ('000tpa)
Petrochemicals Business Environment
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings
Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals And Plastics Market, 2004-2015
- Post-Privatisation
- Projects And Expansions
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Turkey's Petrochemicals Industry, 2007-2014 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)
- Macroeconomic Activity
- Table: Turkey - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Monitor
- DuPont (Advansa)
- Petkim
- Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corporation (Tupras)
Country Snapshot: Turkey Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Glossary Of Terms
- Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry
- Cross Checks
- Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.