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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Japan Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", publishedRecently published research from Business Monitor International, "Japan Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Japan's share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 17.88%, while it provides no meaningful share of production. By 2014, it is expected to be consuming 15.28% of the region's gas. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 - compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009. Japanese real GDP is assumed by BMI to increase by 1.9% in 2010, and we foresee average annual growth of 1.3% in 2010-2014. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2010 and 2014, implying demand of 4.10mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should be consuming 96bcm of gas by 2014, all of which will be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Japanese oil consumption of 7.43%, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.05mn b/d by 2019. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 88.7bcm in 2010 to 100.4bcm by 2019. All of Japan's gas will continue to be imported in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found to the rear of this report. Japan now holds eighth place, behind Malaysia, in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks 11th, behind Thailand, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which counter the lack of reserves and output growth potential. Japan now shares fourth place with Singapore in BMI's downstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, increasing gas demand and the established modern refining capability. However, it is held back by a high level of retail site intensity and a poor oil demand growth outlook. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Japan Political SWOT - Japan Economic SWOT Japan Energy Market Overview Global Oil Market Outlook - Trouble On The Horizon - OECD Outlook Remains Uncertain - Africa Leads OPEC Lower - No Change In Iran? - Overstocked - Finding Support - Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 - Table: Oil Price Forecasts - Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Energy Market Overview - Oil Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) - Oil: Downstream - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) - Gas Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) - Liquefied Natural Gas - Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) Business Environment Ratings - Asia Pacific Region - Composite Scores - Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating - Upstream Scores - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating - Japan Upstream Rating - Overview - Japan Upstream Rating - Rewards - Japan Upstream Rating - Risks To Potential Returns - Downstream Scores - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating - Japan Downstream Rating - Overview - Japan Downstream Rating - Rewards - Japan Downstream Rating - Risks Industry Forecast Scenario - Oil And Gas Reserves - Oil Supply And Demand - Gas Supply And Demand - LNG - Refining And Oil Products Trade - Revenues/Import Costs - Table: Japan Oil And Gas - Historical Data And Forecasts - Other Energy - Table: Japan Other Energy - Historical Data And Forecasts - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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