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Follow on Google News | Hungary Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 638.6bcm, with demand of 728.8bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.1% growth. Production of an estimated 788.4bcm in 2010 should reach 936.4bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from an estimated 149.8bcm in 2010 to 207.5bcm by the end of the period. Hungary's share of consumption in 2010 is an estimated 1.64%, which is forecast to rise to 1.89% by 2014. Its contribution to gas production is not significant, with no improvement expected over the forecast period. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl (+36.4% yo- y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00. For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year's level. Hungarian real GDP is assumed by BMI to have risen by 1.1% in 2010. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.8% in 2010-2014. Hungarian oil consumption reached an estimated 165,000b/d in 2010. We are expecting a gradual, ongoing recovery, held back by the near-term economic outlook, with consumption reaching no more than 174,000b/d by 2014. Domestic production, which is largely in the hands of former state company MOL, is not expected to recover from this decline, with steady slippage leading to higher import volumes, reaching 148,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to increase from an estimated 10.5bcm in 2010 to around 13.8bcm in 2014 - implying that net gas imports will reach 11.8bcm by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Hungarian oil consumption of 13.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 130,000b/d to 170,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 10.5bcm to 17.5bcm by 2019, met largely by imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Hungary now shares 10th place with Uzbekistan in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) Ratings table, which combines upstream and downstream scores. It now holds 13th place in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings. The country's minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset by privatisation progress, the competitive/ For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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