BMI's latest update on Mexico's telecommunications market contains revised forecast figures for the country's fixed-line telephony, broadband subscriber and mobile customer markets. Our new forecast revisions are partly based on new data published by Mexico's Comision Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel). Meanwhile, our forecasts incorporate H110 data which, at the time of writing, had been published by the majority of Mexico's telecoms operators.
Since our last update, mobile subscriber data has been published for the first six months of 2010 by all of Mexico's network operators, with the exception of Iusacell. Based on the available data, we calculate that the market grew by 3.9% in the first six months of the year, reflecting the addition of 3.22mn new customers. Growth rates for the first two quarters of 2010 were higher than in the same quarters in 2009. BMI now predicts growth of 8% for 2010 as a whole. Furthermore we now forecast a total market of around 105mn subscribers by the end of 2014, reflecting a penetration rate of over 94%.
Key developments in the mobile sector include the July news that a joint venture between Mexican media conglomerate Grupo Televisa and mobile operator Nextel Mexico, which is owned by NII Holdings, had emerged as the sole bidder for a nationwide concession in the sale of spectrum in the 1700MHz band. The Televisa/NII joint venture bid for 30MHz in each of the country's nine mobile operating regions. Also in July, it was revealed that Spain's Telefonica had emerged as the highest bidder in an auction for spectrum in the 1900MHz band. The second and third-highest bids were submitted by mobile operator Iusacell and the Televisa/NII joint venture. All three operators were awarded blocks of 10MHz spectrum.
BMI's new forecast for Mexico's fixed-line market envisages a pattern of slow decline. By the end of our forecast period, we now predict that penetration will fall to just 16.6%. Meanwhile, our new broadband subscriber forecast anticipates growth of almost 24% in 2010 as a whole. Our new forecast is based on subscriber data published by the leading broadband service providers, including fixed-line incumbent Telmex. This data suggests that the number of broadband subscribers grew by 12.2% in H1 2010.
Key developments of note in the wireline sector include the news that a consortium made up of Grupo Televisa, Mexican cableco Megacable and Spain's Telefonica had been awarded the licence allowing access to two strands of dark fibre owned by state power company Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE). Under the terms of the licence, all three companies will be able to transport customer traffic over the fibre strands; the licence will also allow them to offer routing services to other operators.
This quarter sees the introduction of new terminology to describe the different categories surveyed within BMI's Telecoms Business Environment Ratings. Mexico remains in fourth position in BMI's latest set of Business Environment Ratings for Latin America. Mexico scores above average in all four categories.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Mobile Market SWOT Analysis
- Mexico Wireline Business Environment SWOT
- Mexico Political SWOT
- Mexico Economic SWOT
- Mexico Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Rankings
- Latin America Business Environment Ratings
- Mexico
- Table: Latin America BER Q410
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mobile
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts
- ARPU
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile ARPU (MXN) - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Fixed Line
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Internet
- Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
- Mobile
- Market Shares
- Table: Mexico Mobile Market, Q210
- Net Additions
- Table: Mexico Mobile Market, Net Additions, Q409-Q210
- Subscriber Mix
- ARPU & MOU
- 3G
- Mobile Contract Wins
- Table: Mobile Contract Wins
- Mobile Content
- Regional Overview
- Country Outlook
- SMS
- Mobile Broadband
- Mobile Banking
- Location Services
- Other Content
- Value-Added Services Timeline
- Table: Value-Added Services Timeline
- Mobile Operator Data
- Mexico Mobile Market Overview
- Table: Telcel
- Table: Movistar
- Table: Iusacell
- Table: Nextel
- Fixed Line
- Table: Mexico Local Access Market, Q210
- Regional Analysis
- Table: Telmex Operations In Communities With And Without Competition, 2009 (MXNmn)
- Subscriber Types
- Long Distance
- Table: ILD Minutes By Country 2009 ('000)
- Pay-TV And Triple Play
- Internet
- Table: Mexico Internet Users By Access Type, 2001-2009 ('000)
- Table: Mexico Internet Subscription Market, 2004-2008 ('000)
- Other Technologies
- Table: Mexico: Fibre-Optic Network, 2002-2009 ('000km)
- Table: Mexico's Wireline Developments
Regulatory Developments
- Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Mexico
- Mexico: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
- Background And Regulatory Bodies
- Regulatory Issues
- Competition
- Interconnection
- Investment
- Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
- Competitor Analysis
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