The shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Poland has taken a step closer with a consortium led by Royal Boskalis Westminster (Boskalis) winning the US$211mn tender to build an LNG terminal at the port of Swinoujscie. BMI believes that the construction of the terminal is set to change the make-up of Poland's maritime sector, which until now has been geared towards containers and dry bulk cargo such as coal.
The terminal and its pipeline infrastructure are part of Poland's gas import diversification strategy, which is planned to lessen the country's reliance on Russia for its gas. As well seeking diversification of its gas supplies, Poland needs to boost its gas imports as consumption is increasing while production is falling. The country is developing gas-fired power stations that will need to be fuelled, with Radoslaw Dudzinski, CEO of Poland's state-owned Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo (PGNiG), estimating an additional 1.5-2.0GW of power could be brought online by 2015. The construction of the terminal is planned to be completed by the end of 2012. The launch date gives the terminal plenty of preparation time before its first shipment of LNG, which is due, according to BMI's oil and gas estimates, in 2014.
BMI's forecast for Poland's air freight shows a year on year growth of cargo traffic in 2010. We anticipate Poland's air freight volume recovering by 6.7% y-o-y this year to 55,910 tonnes, after an estimated contraction of 9.89% in 2009.
We expect cargo handled at two of Poland's key ports, the Port of Gdansk and the Port of Gdynia, to grow at a moderate rate this year in general tonnage terms. The Port of Gdansk throughput will increase by 6.6% to 20.11mn tonnes, following a good 2009 performance when the port was largely able to sidestep the effects of the international recession. Volumes grew 6.1% to 18.86mn tonnes last year. This year total volume at the Port of Gdynia will gain 7.2% to 14.21mn tonnes. Last year volumes there dropped by 14.3% to 13.26mn tonnes.
For the rail freight sector we expect the volumes to recover 3.78% to 216.5mn tonnes this year, after falling an estimated 16.17% in 2009. The pace should accelerate in 2011 with a growth of 5.4%. BMI forecasts higher growth pattern for the country's road freight, which tries to recover from a huge drop in traffic. We predict the 2010 volumes to reach 153.1mn tonnes, a y-o-y increase of 14.23% after an estimated fall of 48.15% in 2009. 2011 will see road freight volumes to grow by 18.46%.
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Poland Freight Transport SWOT
- Poland Political SWOT
- Poland Economic SWOT
- Poland Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Europe Freight Transport Business Environment Ratings
- Poland's Freight Transport Environment
- Transport Intensity Index
- Poland Logistics Performance Index (LPI)
- Political Risk Summary
- Economic Risk Summary
- Business Environment Risk Summary
- Legal Code/Corruption
- Red Tape
- Labour Force
- Table: Labour Force Quality
Industry Trends and Developments
- Air Freight
- Maritime Freight
- Rail Freight
- Intermodal and Logistics
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Air Freight
- Table: Air Freight, 2007-2014
- Maritime Freight
- Table: Maritime Freight, 2007-2014
- Rail Freight
- Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2014
- Road Freight
- Table: Road Freight, 2007-2014
- Trade Overview
- Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2007-2014
- Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2014
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Poland's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Table: Poland's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Poland - Economic Activity
Market Overview
- Roads
- Rail
- Air
- Water
Company Profile
- Polskie Koleje Panstwowe (Grupa PKP)
- LOT Polish Airlines
Country Snapshot: Poland Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Transport Industry
- Sources
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