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Follow on Google News | New Market Research Report: Philippines Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010New Energy market report from Business Monitor International: "Philippines Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010"
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. The Philippines' estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 is 0.89%, while its share of production was 1.06%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 0.85%, with the country accounting for 0.96% of supply. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 - compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average of US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009. The Philippines' real GDP growth in 2010 is forecast by BMI to be 4.9%, with an average annual increase of 4.6% expected in 2010-2014. There is international oil company (IOC) and national involvement in domestic upstream activities, leading to substantial gas output growth and some modest liquids expansion. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 67,000b/d by 2014, with the country pumping an estimated 60,000b/d in 2010. Beyond 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2014, implying end-period demand of 307,000b/d. The import requirement would therefore be about 241,000b/d by 2014. Gas demand is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.4bcm in 2010 to 5.3bcm by 2014, with imports required by the end of the forecast period. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Philippines oil production of 22.62%, with crude volumes peaking at 70,000b/d in 2012/2013 before falling steadily to 51,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 29.20%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 349,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from around 4.4bcm in 2010 to a possible 8.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 105%, this will require up to 1.0bcm of imports. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report. The Philippines holds sixth place in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. The country ranks eighth, just behind Pakistan, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, reflecting a reasonable resource position and a better-than- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Philippines Political SWOT - Philippines Economic SWOT - Philippines Business Environment SWOT Philippines Energy Market Overview Global Oil Market Outlook - Trouble On The Horizon - OECD Outlook Remains Uncertain - Africa Leads OPEC Lower - No Change In Iran? - Overstocked - Finding Support - Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2010 - Table: Oil Price Forecasts - Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) Regional Energy Market Overview - Oil Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) - Oil: Downstream - Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) - Gas Supply And Demand - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) - Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) - Liquefied Natural Gas - Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) Business Environment Ratings - Asia Pacific Region - Composite Scores - Table: Regional Composite Business Environment Rating - Upstream Scores - Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating - Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview - Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards - Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks - Downstream Scores - Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating - Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview - Philippines Downstream Rating - Rewards - Philippines Downstream Rating - Risks Business Environment - Legal Framework - Infrastructure - Labour Force - Foreign Investment Policy - Tax Regime - Security Risk Industry Forecast Scenario - Oil And Gas Reserves - Oil Supply And Demand - Gas Supply And Demand - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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