"Bulgaria Defence & Security Report Q4 2010" now available at Fast Market Research

Aug. 31, 2010 - PRLog -- Bulgaria's potential role in hosting part of the US-proposed missile defence shield in Europe, coupled with the government's commitment to the EU-led Nabucco pipeline, will keep relations with Moscow tense. While the administration's tougher stance towards Russia may boost the popularity of Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and his GERB party, there is a risk of a significant deterioration in diplomatic and trade relations.

On the domestic front, indications that EU aid payments to Bulgaria may once again be suspended have cast a shadow on the new government's progress on eradicating corruption. While we view positively the government's tough stance on graft, we still caution that real reform will be challenging, with efforts so far focused on prosecuting previous government members rather than working to disincentivise the practice. In the meantime, popular support for the Prime Minister - and the government - and relations with the EU will likely deteriorate should tangible results not prove forthcoming.

As one of the last economies in emerging Europe to enter recession, Bulgaria will also be one of the last to exit the downturn, with a further year of negative growth on the way in 2010. Even though we expect a return to positive growth in 2011, we nonetheless stress that private sector deleveraging, limited scope for fiscal expansion and weaker external demand will prevent economic growth returning to the 6% range seen at the peak of the previous cycle.

A key question amidst this mixed economic outlook is whether the current level of military expenditure can be maintained. A great deal of uncertainty surrounds Bulgaria's defence industry, with prospects varying greatly from one company to another. Future government spending is likely to focus on advanced technology offerings so as to modernise materiel. In this context Bulgarian companies, focused largely on low-tech products such as small arms, will not experience significant increases in demand. NATOcompatible companies such as Arcus and Arsenal can reasonably hope to win contracts supplying the Bulgarian army with small arms. In addition, membership of NATO and the EU are pushing the military increasingly towards professionalisation.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Bulgaria Security SWOT
- Bulgaria Defence Industry SWOT
- Bulgaria Political SWOT
- Bulgaria Economic SWOT
- Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
- United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
- Latin America: Beyond Lula
- Western Europe: All About Austerity
- Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
- South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
- Wild Cards To Watch
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
Security Risk Analysis
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Bulgaria's Security Risk Ratings
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Political Overview
- Domestic Politics
Security Overview
- Internal Security Situation
- Table: Regional Insurgent Groups
- External Security Situation
- Bilateral And Multilateral Security Relations
Armed Forces And Government Expenditure
- Armed Forces
- Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (Including conscripted, '000)
- Modernisation Programme
- International Deployment
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Industry Trends And Developments
- Table: Key Players In Bulgaria's Defence Sector, 2008
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Armed Forces
- Table: Bulgaria's Armed Forces, 2007-2014 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
- Government Expenditure
- Table: Bulgaria's Defence Expenditure, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Bulgaria - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Company Profiles
- Arcus
- Arsenal
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Defence Industry
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: Methodology
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.