Follow on Google News News By Tag Industry News News By Location Country(s) Industry News
Follow on Google News | Indonesia Oil & Gas Report Q4 2010: New research report available at Fast Market ResearchNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
In terms of natural gas, in 2010 the region will consume an estimated 496bcm and demand of 625bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of a forecast 415bcm in 2010 should reach 522bcm in 2014, which implies net imports rising from around 81bcm to 104bcm. This is thanks to many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Indonesia's share of gas consumption in 2010 is expected to be 7.68%, while its share of production is put at 18.31%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 7.23%, with the country accounting for 15.71% of supply. We continue to predict a 2010 OPEC basket oil price level of US$83.00/bbl. This equates to Brent at just under US$85.00, WTI at almost US$87.60, Urals averaging US$83.60 and Dubai at US$83.55. The 2011 OPEC assumption is US$85.00/bbl, rising to an average of around US$90.00 in 2012 and beyond. For the whole of 2010, we are currently assuming an average global jet fuel price of US$95.50/bbl, compared with around US$70.66 in 2009. The 2010 average global gasoil price, calculated by BMI, is US$92.67/bbl, against US$68.96 in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is estimated at US$83.09 - compared with US$59.30/bbl in 2009. For global unleaded gasoline, BMI is now forecasting an average US$95.66/bbl in 2010, up from around US$70.17/bbl in 2009. BMI forecasts Indonesian real GDP growth of 5.2% in 2010. We foresee average annual growth of 5.7% in 2010-2014. Efforts are being made by the Indonesian authorities to encourage investment in new oil and gas supply, in order to stem the decline in production. Numerous international oil companies (IOCs) work in partnership with national oil company Pertamina and the state. We are estimating oil and gas liquids production of no more than 965,000b/d by 2014, although the country is expected to pump 1.03mn b/d in 2010. Consumption is forecast to increase by up to 2.5% per annum to 2014. Our estimates imply demand of 1.49mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 526,000b/d by 2014. Gas production, rising to an estimated 82bcm by 2014, should provide end-period export potential of 36.8bcm, with supply risk on the downside. Between 2010 and 2019 we are forecasting a reduction in Indonesian oil production of 20.98%, with crude volumes falling steadily to 810,000b/d in 2019. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 20.68%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1.65mn b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 76bcm in 2010 to a peak of 90bcm by 2017-19. With demand growth of 58.79%, this provides an export capability peaking at 43.6bcm in 2012, before falling to 29.5bcm by 2019, largely in the form of LNG. Details of BMI's 10-year forecasts, which provide regional and country-specific projections, can be found later in this report. Indonesia is ranked 12th behind Pakistan in BMI's composite Business Environment (BE) league table. This reflects its ninth place, ahead of Thailand, in BMI's updated upstream Business Environment Ratings, with a relatively strong resource position offset by poor output growth prospects, a deteriorating reserves-to- For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Account Phone Number