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"Kazakhstan and Central Asia Defence & Security Report Q4 2010" Published

New Defense research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research

 
PRLog - Aug. 29, 2010 - It had been initially hoped that the regime change in Kyrgyzstan would be bloodless and not lead to any marked increase in regional tensions.

Those hopes have not been realised. According to a Kyrgyz Ministry of Health statement on July 20 the death toll from the political violence is 355, with 1.080 hospitalised. Deputy Prime Minister Azimbek Beknazarov, however, at least 895 people have been killed. The UNHCR reported on 21 July that some 75,000 people are still displaced.

There is a definite ethnic character to the violence. The deposed President had come from the south of the country where almost half of the population is ethnically Uzbek. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, has reported that Uzbeks are being systematically targeted and many are being pressured to leave Kyrgyzstan.

The five Central Asia Republics had all been part of the Soviet Union. During that time these ethnic tensions remained internal matters. Stalin had deliberately drawn internal boundaries in such a way that facilitated a principle of divide and rule. Now though they represent potential flashpoints between independent states.

Kyrgyzstan had asked Russia for military assistance. While Kyrgyzstan is a close ally of Russia and Russia had been the first country to recognise the new regime following the overthrow of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Russia has declined to become directly involved. Russia instead sees the need to maintain the balance of its interests in the region. It has for instance been drawing closer to Uzbekistan after some years of coldness. While Uzbekistan needs to be seen to support actions to protect fellow Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan, this does not mean that it would welcome Russian army forces on its border.

While there are continuing tensions in the region with some outbreaks of violence, we do not foresee the current troubles leading to either the fall of other regimes in the region or to clashes between countries.

Any potential unrest is more likely to have an Islamist driver. The Ferghana Valley that is divided between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan is considered to be a breeding ground for Islamic militancy. Groups such as Tablighi Jamaat and Bayaat have been able to find support in this poor region and in light of the war in Afghanistan.

Economically, the region has a mix of outcomes at present. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are benefiting from an increase in resource prices and demand growth. Turkmenistan on the other hand is suffering because gas exports to Russia this year will be barely a third of what they were just a few years ago. Tajikistan is also recovering, led by its product exports. In each of these countries though the strong growth could more correctly be described as recovery and we are forecasting much slower real growth through the rest of this forecast period. And Kyrgyzstan, of course, is facing severe economic damage from its political troubles.

Seen in the broader strategic view, the region will remain important to the major powers because it lies geographically on the point of intersection between the zones of influence important to Russia, China and the United States. Despite the tensions between them, all the republics seem to sense the leverage they can gain by favouring alternately each of these powers.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/79753_kazakhstan_and_central_a...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Central Asia Security SWOT
- Central Asian Defence Industry SWOT
- Central Asia Political SWOT
Global Defence Overview
- Global Hotspots
- Table: Election Timetable, H210-2011
- United States: Obama To Be Tested By Mid-Term Elections
- Latin America: Beyond Lula
- Western Europe: All About Austerity
- Central Europe: New Governments To Be Tested
- South-East Europe: Turkey's Ongoing Evolution
- Russia And The Former Soviet Union: Focus On Security
- Middle East: Ongoing Challenges
- Sub-Saharan Africa: The Election Conundrum
- Asia: The Usual Risks Prevail
- Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe And Central Asia Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe And Central Asia State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
- Central Asia Conflict Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Ratings
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia City Terrorism Index
Central Asia Political Overview
- Kazakhstan
- Kyrgyzstan
- Tajikistan
- Turkmenistan
- Uzbekistan
Central Asia Regional Security
- The Geopolitical Importance Of Central Asia
- Challenges And Threats To Central Asia's Stability
- Table: Eurasian Organisations
- Table: Central Asia Trade Patterns, 2007
- Recent Developments
- Islamist Extremism And Transnational Threats
- Table: Central Asia Insurgent Groups
- Internal Instability
- Inter-Regional Competition And Cooperation
- Regional Organisations
- Land Borders
- Water
- Natural Resources
- Regional Military Relations With Russia, China And The US
- The US Presence
- Operation Enduring Freedom
- Russia And China In Central Asia
Armed Forces And Government Spending
- Kazakhstan's Armed Forces
- Kyrgyzstan's Armed Forces
- Tajikistan's Armed Forces
- Turkmenistan's Armed Forces
- Uzbekistan's Armed Forces
- International Deployments
- Table: Central Asia Foreign Developments
- Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
- Arms Trade Overview
- Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
-

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=7975...

About Business Monitor International

Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets.  BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports.  Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports.  View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/publishers.aspx?pubid=1010

About Fast Market Research

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.

# # #

Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.

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