Market Report, "BMI India Retail Report Q4 2010", published

Aug. 5, 2010 - PRLog -- The Q410 BMI India Retail Report forecasts that total retail sales will grow from INR16.51trn (US$380.39bn) in 2010 to INR26.02trn (US$679.32bn) by 2014. Strong underlying economic growth, population expansion, the increasing wealth of individuals and the rapid construction of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth.

As well as an expanding middle and upper class consumer base, there will also be opportunities in India's second and third-tier cities. The greater availability of personal credit and a growing vehicle population providing improved mobility also contribute to a trend towards annual retail sales growth of 12.3%. India's nominal GDP is forecast at US$1.66trn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 8.0% is predicted by BMI through to 2014. With the population expected to increase from 1.17bn in 2010 to 1.23bn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by more than 86% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$2,652. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$796 in 2010 to US$1,445 in 2014.

The growth in the overall retail market will be driven largely by the explosion in the organised retail market. Domestic retailers such as Reliance Retail and Pantaloon Retail continue to invest heavily in increasing their store networks and improving in-store offerings, and the impact they have on growth will be boosted by the arrival of expansion-orientated multinationals.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales in India are forecast to undergo enormous growth over the forecast period. BMI predicts that sales through MGR outlets will increase by 154% to reach US$15.29bn by 2014. This is a consequence of India's dramatic, rapid shift from small independent retailers to large, modern outlets, although it must also be noted that this growth is forecast to come from a very low starting point.

BMI forecasts consumer electronic sales at US$24.5bn in 2010, with over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales at US$3.17bn. The latter is predicted to be the fastest growing retail sub-sector over the forecast period, albeit from a low base. BMI forecasts that sales will more than double, to US$6.39bn, by 2014.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are a forecast US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of regional retail sales in 2010, and by 2014 their share of the regional market is expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is forecast by BMI at 72.2%, an annual average 14%. India should experience the most rapid rate of growth in the region, followed by China. For India, its forecast market share of 13.9% in 2010 is expected to increase to 14.3% by 2014.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- India Retail Business Environment SWOT
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Pacific Retail Business Environment Ratings
- India's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Key Retail Sector Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sector Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: India GDP By Expenditure, % of GDP, 1992-2017
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Asia Retail Sales, 2007-2014 (US$bn)
- Table: Asia Food Consumption, 2007-2014 (US$$bn)
- Table: Asia Macroeconomic Outlook, 2007-2014
Mass Grocery Retail
- India Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: India MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2014
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2008 & 2018
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- India Consumer Electronics SWOT
- India Electronics Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Computers
- Table: Computers Sales, 2007-2014
- Drivers
- Segments
- Netbooks
- Table: Total Desktop Sales, 2006 & 2007
- Audio/Video
- Table: AV Sales, 2007-2014
- Mobile Handsets
- Table: Mobile Communications Demand, 2007-2014
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
Automotives
- India Autos SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: India Autos Industry Production & Sales, 2007-2014
- Table: India Autos Exports & Imports, 2007-2014
Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2001
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.