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Follow on Google News | Market Report, "Kazakhstan Power Report Q3 2010", publishedNew Energy research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Regional thermal power generation in 2009 was around 1,284TWh, accounting for 50.7% of the total electricity supplied in the CEE. Our forecast for 2014 is 1,455TWh, implying 11.6% 2010-2014 growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 49.0% - in spite of environmental concerns promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Kazakhstan's thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 72.3TWh, or 5.63% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 6.57% of thermal generation. Coal is the dominant fuel source in Kazakhstan. In 2009, it accounted for an estimated 51.1% of primary energy demand (PED). Coal is followed by gas at 29.5%, oil at 16.3% and hydro with a 2.6% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,546mn toe by 2014, representing 13.8% growth over the period 2010-2014. Kazakhstan's estimated 2009 market share of 4.96% of regional demand is set to rise to 5.67% by 2014. Kazakhstan has longer-term plans for nuclear power generation, but will not contribute to nuclear consumption during the forecast period. Kazakhstan is now ahead of Romania in BMI's updated Power Business Environment ratings, having this quarter retaken outright regional leadership. There is a combination of unrivalled power consumption growth outlook, region-topping energy demand growth, steady privatisation progress, and relatively low level of energy import dependence. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strengths, but the country should remain ahead of Romania and Turkey at the top of the regional ladder. BMI is now forecasting Kazakh real GDP growth to average 6.0% per annum between 2010 and 2014, following an assumed rise of 1.2% in 2009. The population is expected to expand from 15.5mn to 15.7mn over the period, and GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase 96% and 22% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 66.7TWh in 2009 to 84.6TWh by the end of the forecast period, while theoretical surplus generation is expected to rise from an estimated 13.3TWh in 2009 to 25.5TWh in 2014, assuming 6.6% average annual growth in power generation in 2010-2014. In fact, system wastage and transmission weaknesses mean that Kazakhstan has to import some power, as well as export electricity to Russia. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Kazakh electricity generation of 83.8%, which is the second highest projected growth rate for the CEE region. This equates to 40.3% over the 2014-2019 period, up from 31.1% between 2010 and 2014. PED growth is set to increase from 28.0% between 2010 and 2014 to 37.7% in 2014-2019, representing 76.2% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 115% in hydro-power use during the period 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 79% between 2010 and 2019. More detailed long-term forecasts can be found later in this report. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Partial Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Kazakhstan Political SWOT - Kazakhstan Economic SWOT Industry Overview - Global - Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014 - Central And Eastern Europe - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh) Kazakhstan Market Overview - Primary Energy Demand - Power Generation - Power Consumption - Regulation And Competition - Pricing - Power Transmission Business Environment - Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Power Business Environment Ratings - Kazakhstan's Power Rating - Kazakhstan's Business Environment Industry Forecast Scenario - Kazakhstan Power Outlook - Generation - Gas-Fired - Oil-Fired - Coal-Fired - Nuclear Energy - Hydro-Electric - Renewable Energy - Power Costs - Transmission - Table: Kazakhstan's Power Sector, 2007-2014 - Table: Kazakhstan's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 - Table: Kazakhstan's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 - Table: Kazakhstan's Power Costs, 2007-2014 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) - Assumptions And Methodology - Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario - Long-Term Power Outlook - Macroeconomic Outlook - Table: Kazakhstan - Economic Activity Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts - Global Snapshot - Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019 - Regional Outlook - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) - Table: Central And Eastern Europe And Central Asia Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) - Kazakhstan Country Overview - Full Table of Contents is available at: -- http://www.fastmr.com/ About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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