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Follow on Google News | Recently released market study: Austria Metals Report Q3 2010Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Austria Metals Report Q3 2010", is now available at Fast Market Research
In Q110, Austrian crude steel output was up 43.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.62mn tonnes, due primarily to poor base effects. Output was still nearly 20% down on pre-recession levels and also down 5.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) as the industry struggled to maintain momentum. The Austrian steel industry is at the mercy of the volatile European markets, despite the expected upturn of production and exports. Compared with pre-recession activity, domestic demand remains weak and fiscal consolidation in 2011 will further weigh on the domestic demand recovery, while Greece's ongoing economic crisis could have a similarly negative impact should credit conditions tighten significantly. Although the Austrian economy is expected to grow 0.8% in 2010 following a 3.5% contraction in 2009, this will not be anywhere near enough to reverse the losses seen in 2009, when crude steel output plummeted 25.4% to 5.66mn tonnes. However, the performance in Q110 was still a lot better than BMI had expected, so we have revised our crude steel output forecast up from 5.87mn tonnes to 6.19mn tonnes for 2010, an increase of 9.4% y-o-y. This is supported by an increase in the country's industrial capacity utilisation rate, which hit 79.4% in Q210 from a record low of 73.2% during the same period a year earlier. We note, however, that utilisation rates remain well below trend levels (which are around 82%) and as such, though a recovery is underway, the gap is likely to take significant time to close given weaker domestic and external demand conditions. The eurozone debt crisis could, at best, slow the rate of growth and possibly lead to another contraction in the sector. Between 60 and 80% of Austrian aluminium and steel production is exported, with the hard-hit automotive industry comprising around 25% of sales. Exports will therefore be crucial to determining the fate of the steel industry in 2010 and beyond. A double dip recession caused by the European debt crisis would have major implications for the sector going forward. Much depends on the performance of the German economy, which remains a key export destination for Austrian goods. With Germany's recovery facing significant challenges, BMI predicts a volatile H210, leading to lower growth rates in 2011. As such, it will take until 2014 before Austria returns to the 7.6mn tonne crude steel production and 6.9mn tonne hot rolled production levels seen before the recession. Our forecast is supported by Austrian steelmaker VoestAlpine's recent statement that a return to production levels of 2007 'is likely only over a period of several years'. In terms of the domestic market, we forecast a surge of 12.1% growth in finished steel consumption to 3.52mn tonnes in 2010, followed by modest growth of 2.5% in 2011 and a 9.8% surge in 2012, as Austria overcomes a predicted weakening of export-oriented steel consuming industries. By 2014, finished steel consumption should reach a record 4.29mn tonnes, up 6.5% over 2008. In the aluminium market, trends will mirror steel consumption although the trend will be stronger, with growth in aluminium consumption of 11.9% to around 355,000 tonnes in 2010, following a contraction of 17.1% in 2009. By 2014, consumption rates should be exceeding 490,000 tonnes, up 28% over 2008. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Report Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - Austria Political SWOT - Austria Economic SWOT Global Overview - Global Quarterly Metals Views, July 2010 - Table: BMI's Core Views For The Metals Industry - Metals Market Overview - Table: World's Top 10 Steel Producing Countries (mn tonnes) - Table: Recently Added And Planned Smelter Capacity - Commodities Forecast - Nickel To Average US$22,000/tonne In 2010 - Table: BMI Nickel Forecast - Table: Nickel - Market Strategy - Aluminium Update: Downside Risks To Average Price of US$2,100/tonne In 2010 - Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast - Table: Aluminium - Commodities Forecast - Gold To Average US$1,150/oz In 2010 - Table: BMI Gold Forecast - Table: Gold - Commodities Forecast - Copper - Table: BMI Copper Forecast - Table: Copper Regional Overview - Europe Overview Forecast Scenario - Table: Austria Metals Industry, 2007-2014 ('000 tonnes unless stated) - Macroeconomic Forecasts - Table: Austria - Economic Activity Competitive Landscape Company Profiles - VoestAlpine - Austria Metall AG Global Assumptions - Q3 2010 Update - Table: Global & Regional Real Gdp Growth (%) - Table: Real Gdp Growth (%) - Consensus Forecasts - Table: Global Assumptions - Table: Developed States, Real Gdp Growth Forecasts - Table: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Cross Checks About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. # # # Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. End
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