Indonesia Power Report Q3 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

July 17, 2010 - PRLog -- The new Indonesia Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.07% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a theoretical surplus of generation that should mean limited reliance on power imports. However, owing to chronic system inefficiencies and wastage, the country struggles to provide adequate generation for its needs. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,308 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 2.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,725TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 26.2% in 2010-2014.

Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,849TWh, accounting for 80.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,600TWh, implying a 23.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Indonesia's thermal generation in 2009 was around 145TWh, or 2.48% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for 2.45% of the region's thermal generation.

Oil is the dominant fuel in Indonesia, accounting for an estimated 45.1% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2009, followed by gas at 26.7%, coal at 24.0% and hydro at 2.3%. Regional energy demand is forecasted to reach 5,334mn toe by 2014, representing 24.6% growth from the estimated 2009 level. Indonesia's estimated 2009 market share of 3.15% is set to fall to 2.86% by 2014. Indonesia is moving ahead slowly with controversial plans to build its first nuclear power plant, which could be operational by 2017.

In BMI's updated Power Business Environment Rating, Indonesia is now ranked equal eighth, alongside the Philippines. This reflects its low level of energy import dependence and its healthy power consumption growth prospects. However, several country risk factors offset the industry strength, and the country may struggle to keep up with the Philippines over the longer term. Pakistan, just one point below, also poses a threat over the medium term.

BMI is now forecasting Indonesian real GDP growth averaging 5.82% per annum between 2010 and 2014, with a 2010 assumption of 5.20%. Population is expected to expand from 237mn to 251mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 31% and 19% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 129TWh in 2009 to 168TWh by the end of the forecast period, theoretically meaning a surplus in generation which is forecast to rise from an estimated 28TWh in 2009 to 33TWh in 2014, assuming 5.0% annual average growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014. Chronic system inefficiencies and wastage mean the country will continue to struggle to provide adequate generation.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Indonesian electricity generation of 55.3%, which is above average for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 28.4% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 21.0% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to rise from 15.9% in 2010-2014 to 24.6%, representing 44.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 23% in hydro-power use during 2010-2019 is a major element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 58% between 2010 and 2019. More details of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found at the end of this report.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/72751_indonesia_power_report_q...

Partial Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Indonesia Power Business Environment SWOT
- Indonesia Political SWOT
- Indonesia Economic SWOT
Industry Overview
- Global
- Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014
- Asia Pacific Region
- Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm)
- Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh)
Market Overview
- Primary Energy Demand
- Power Generation
- Power Consumption
- Regulation And Competition
- Pricing
- Power Transmission
Business Environment
- Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings
- Indonesia's Power Rating
- Legal Framework
- Infrastructure
- Labour Force
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Tax Regime
- Security Risk
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Indonesia's Power Outlook
- Generation
- Gas-Fired
- Oil-Fired
- Coal-Fired
- Nuclear Energy
- Hydro-Electric
- Renewable Energy
- Power Costs
- Transmission
- Table: Indonesia's Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Indonesia's Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Indonesia's Non-Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014
- Table: Indonesia's Power Costs, 2007-2014
- Assumptions And Methodology
- Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
- Long-Term Power Outlook
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Indonesia - Economic Activity
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
- Global Snapshot
- Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019
- Regional Outlook
- Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe)
- Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh)
- Indonesia Country Overview
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN)

Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/catalog/product.aspx?productid=7275...

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Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.