The Q310 BMI UAE Retail report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from an estimated AED69.28bn (US$18.87bn)
The UAEs nominal GDP in 2010 is predicted to be US$300.7bn, with 2009s 3.4% decline expected to turn into growth of 2.1% in 2010 as the economy begins to recover. BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 4.3% between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 4.7mn in 2010 to an estimated 5.1mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by the end of the forecast period to US$78,421.
Average household spending power in the UAE stands at US$14,400 per annum, according to property consultants Colliers International. Emirati households account for the lions share of this spending, with an average of US$23,000, while Western, other Arab and Asian households have annual spending power of US$19,500, US$13,500 and US$10,000 respectively.
While Emiratis actively contributed to retail sales, the buying power of the countrys expatriate residents was the major source of success, a study by Indian research firm RNCOS said. Tourism is also a massive factor in stimulating retail growth, with the UAE expecting more than 11mn tourists every year by 2010. Growing urbanisation is also a factor in the buoyancy of the retail sector. Abu Dhabi in particular is highly urbanised, with the Urban Planning Council (UPC) projecting that Abu Dhabi Citys population will rise to 1.3mn by 2013. In 2005, 85.5% of the UAEs population was classified by the UN as urban and this is forecast to increase to 86.3% by 2010.
The UN describes 73% of the UAE population in 2005 as economically active, forecast to rise to 78.6% by 2015. In 2005, just over 30% of the population was in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales, and this is expected to hit 56% by 2015.
Retail sub-sectors predicted by BMI to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by more than 47%, from US$0.31bn in 2010 to US$0.46bn by 2014. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by nearlt 34%, from US$11.56bn to US$15.45bn, during the forecast period. Sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$2.77bn in 2010 to US$3.67bn by 2014, a rise of 32.5%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2010 are predicted to amount to US$183.52bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMIs macroeconomic database is expected to reach US$673.32bn. In 2010, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an estimated 56.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 57.2% by 2014. For the UAE, the estimated 2010 market share of 10.3% is expected to reduce to 10.1% by 2014.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- UAE Retail Business Environment SWOT
- UAE Political SWOT
- UAE Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: UAE Economic Activity, 2007-2014
- Dubai: Notes From A City At A Crossroads
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Business Environment Ratings
- UAE Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- UAE Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of The UAE's MGR Market - Number of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: UAE MGR Sector - Sales, 2007-2014
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 & 2019
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- UAE Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: The UAE's Distributors For Leading Brands
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- UAE Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: UAE Autos Sector - Sales, 2008-2014
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Country Snapshot: UAE Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2000-2004
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
Full Table of Contents is available at:
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