BMI estimates that the number of foreign visitor arrivals increased by 3.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to just over 27mn in 2009. Although this is a sharp deterioration in growth from the previous year, it is a favourable outturn compared with competitors such as Croatia and, in particular, Greece. The recovery in visitor arrivals to Turkey in Q409 continued in the early 2010, although it was slightly muted. The latest official provisional data for the first four months of 2010 show a continuing increase in foreign arrivals of almost 7% y-o-y.
Hospitality
Growth in room nights attributed to foreign tourists, which started strongly in early 2009, showed a deteriorating trend over the year. Room nights declined by 4% y-o-y in Q409 after positive y-o-y growth in the first three quarters. The most recent hospitality sector data, for Q110, are particularly poor, with the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights down by over 17% y-o-y to about 38mn nights. Foreign tourist room nights, which make up 70% of the total, were down by 15%, while room nights by domestic tourists fell by 21%, compared with the same three months in 2009.
Forecast Scenario
BMI maintains its annual growth rate forecast for foreign arrivals to Turkey in 2010 at 6%, with growth rising further in 2011. The background to these forecasts is economic recovery in Turkey's major source markets, including the eurozone - especially Germany - Russia and the UK. The eurozone is expected to tentatively emerge from recession in 2010 but growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.8% in 2011. To the end of 2011, we forecast relatively strong appreciation of the Turkish lira against the euro and the US dollar. This is likely to act as a constraint on growth in foreign visitor arrivals over the short term.
Turkish Airlines
For FY09, the national flag carrier Turkish Airlines (THY) reported a net profit of US$373mn, which was a considerable fall of 51% y-o-y, while operating profit increased by 12% y-o-y. Sales revenue was up by 15% to US$4.7bn. THY's results for Q110 show a 23% y-o-y fall in profit, with higher oil prices driving up costs. However, passenger traffic figures for the first four months of 2010 were up by a strong 21% y-o-y to nearly 8.4mn travellers.
Accommodation Developments
Hilton Worldwide has announced that it will open two more Doubletree properties in Turkey. The group has signed a franchise agreement with the Turkish company Pete Muhendislik Enerji Turizm Sanayi ve Ticaret for the Doubletree by Hilton, Ankara - Kolej, in the capital. The 209-room hotel is expected to be finished in summer 2010. The 236-room Doubletree by Hilton, Istanbul - Moda, is to be owned and operated by the Turkish construction company Tasyapi Insaat Taahut Sanayi ve Ticaret, also under a franchise agreement with Hilton. The hotel is expected to open in Istanbul in September 2010. By Q310, the Doubletree by Hilton brand will include four properties in key Turkish business and leisure locations.
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Turkey Tourism SWOT
- Turkey Political SWOT
- Turkey Economic SWOT
- Turkey Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2006-2014
- Accommodation
- Tale: Accommodation Data, 2006-2014
- Expenditure
- Tale: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2014
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Inbound Tourism By Region, 2006-2014
- Table: Inbound Tourism By Country, 2006-2014 ('000)
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2006-2014
Market Overview - Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Players - Turkish Commercial Airlines
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview - Hospitality
Accommodation Developments
- Health Tourism
- Tourism Infrastructure
- Regional Case Study: Accor
- Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2010
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Central And Eastern Europe Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- BMI's Security Ratings
- Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
- Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
- Turkey's Security Risk Rating
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: BMI's Central And Eastern Europe & Central Asia City Terrorism Index
- Europe Security Overview
Currency Forecast
- Table: BMI Turkey Currency Forecasts, 2010-2011
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Company Profiles
- Turkish Airlines
- Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings - Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- City Terrorism Rating
- Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
- Sources
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