BMIs Q310 Kuwait Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from KWD2.17bn (US$7.55bn) in 2010 to KWD2.88bn (US$10.04bn)
Kuwaits nominal GDP is predicted to be US$141.18bn in 2010, with the years 1.0% decline expected to turn into growth of 1.7% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 2.1% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population estimated to rise from 3.2mn in 2010 to 3.5mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 20% by 2014, reaching US$52,267.
Approximately 80% of the Kuwaiti population are expatriates, while foreign workers crossing the border from Iraq also stimulate the retail market.
In 2005, 73.8% of the Kuwaiti population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.9% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. By 2010, 74.6% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 39.4%.
A very high level of urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 96% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to almost 99% by 2015. According to Arabianbusiness.com, by 2010 the gross leasable area in Kuwaits retail sector is expected to total 1.15mn m2, compared with the 345,000m2 in use in 2006. Property consultant Colliers International expects Kuwait to have the third- largest supply of retail space in the Gulf by 2010.
According to BMI data, retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with sales increasing from US$0.72bn in 2010 to US$0.93bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 31%. Sales of over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals are predicted to increase by almost 32%, from US$0.06bn in 2010 to US$0.08bn by 2014. Vehicle sales are forecast to rise by nearly 12%, from US$3.40bn in 2010 to US$3.80bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2010 are predicted to amount to US$183.52bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMIs macroeconomic database is forecast to reach to US$673.32bn. In 2010, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an 56.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 57.2% by 2014. For Kuwait, its estimated 2010 regional market share of 4.1% is expected to be the same in 2014.
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Report Table of Contents:
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Kuwait Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Kuwait Political SWOT
- Kuwait Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Kuwait Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Kuwait's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Kuwait Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Kuwait MGR Market Share By Retailer, 2010e (%)
- Table: Structure Of Kuwait's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Table: Structure Of Kuwait's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2009 (US$bn)
- Table: Structure of Kuwait's MGR Market - Sales By Format (KWDbn)
- Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2009e
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Kuwait MGR Sales, 2006-2014
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown, 2009 & 2019 (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Kuwait Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Kuwaiti Distributors For Leading Brands
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Kuwait Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecasts Scenario
- Production And Sales
- Table: Autos Industry Overview, 2007-2014
- Industry Developments
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Country Snapshot: Kuwait Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 1997-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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