We hold to our view that the post-crisis recovery in the Russian banking sector will be slow. Holdover effects from the country's financial crisis in late 2008 and lacklustre local demand mean that real asset and lending growth is likely to stay in single digits. We stress though that systemic crisis risks have mitigated substantially and key stability indicators have continued to trend positively. Loan loss provisioning is likely to fall from H210, which should set the stage for further acceleration in growth in 2011. While the worst case scenario risks from the recession have diminished, this will not necessarily translate into a sharp and robust recovery in growth. The lack of a rapid improvement in real sector domestic demand in Russia in 2010 bodes poorly for a bounce back to pre-crisis levels of asset and credit expansion. Though headline real GDP growth is forecast to jump back to a healthy 4.7% in 2010, we caution that this will largely be driven by base effects and exports rather than a marked improvement in private consumption or gross fixed capital formation. As such, the macroeconomic outlook for Russia is not particularly positive for a rapid improvement in loan demand. The post-recession recovery in the Russian banking sector is unlikely to be robust, with our nominal asset growth forecast at 12.0% for 2010. With inflation in 2010 forecast to average 7.8%, this means real growth in the system will remain well off of the double-digit average achieved prior to 2009. Our view that the systemic crisis risks facing the sector in 2009 have mitigated substantially remains in play. Banks are no longer under significant liquidity pressure and the uncertainty surrounding the potential collapse of major banks has all but evaporated alongside the government's recapitalisation programme, announced in mid-2009. As a result, depositor confidence in the system has improved significantly, with the risk of capital outflow no longer on the table. The level of deposits (denominated in roubles)
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (RUBbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At January 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Russia Commercial Banking SWOT
- Russia Political SWOT
- Russia Economic SWOT
- Russia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Russia Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Europe Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009)
- Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields
Russia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Russia Economic Activity, 2008-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Russia's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Russia's 10 Largest Banks
Company Profiles
- Sberbank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- VTB
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Alfa-Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Alfa-Bank, 2007-2008 (US$ '000)
- Gazprom Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Gazprombank, 2007-2008 (RUBmn)
- UniCredit Bank
- ZAO Raiffeisenbank
- Table: Key Statistics For ZAO Raiffeisenbank, 2007-2008 (RUB '000)
- Promsvyazbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Promsvyazbank, 2007-2008 (RUB '000)
- Bank of Moscow
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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