The market turmoil in May 2010 could well derail the nascent banking recovery, while lower oil prices threaten deposit growth and the wider economy. If these factors remain in play then there could be a decline in liquidity and a rise in the Saudi Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR), further reducing banks' appetite to lend. At the time of writing, Saudi banking stocks remain under heavy selling pressure and, despite of some solid results for Q110 and our positive view of the economy's long-term sustainable growth potential, the recovery could be derailed by the recent market turmoil. Oil prices pose perhaps the single most significant threat. A sustained decline could not only affect lending confidence but also deposits, which would have an impact on liquidity and push up the SIBOR. The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the UAE's EIBOR have risen sharply in recent months and Saudi interbank rates could follow suit. We have not altered our forecasts this time around and we continue to expect a small rebound in profit and loan growth, but not to anything like the levels recorded in the boom years. However, with higher inflation now factored in - we forecast the consumer price index CPI averaging 5.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2010 - the real rate of growth is lower.
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Report Table of Contents:
- Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (SARbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At April 2010
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (SARbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking SWOT
- Saudi Arabia Political SWOT
- Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT
- Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Saudi Arabia Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Middle East & Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Middle East Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: GCC Commercial Banks Profits, Q109-Q110 (US$mn)
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009)
- Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields
Islamic Banking
Saudi Arabia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Saudi Arabia Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Protagonists
- Table: Protagonists In Saudi Arabia's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Saudi Banks
- Table: Branches Of Foreign Banks
Company Profiles
- Al Rajhi Bank
- Table:Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Riyad Bank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- National Commercial Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For National Commercial Bank, 2007-2008 (SAR '000)
- Samba Financial Group
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Arab National Bank
- Table: Key Statistics For Arab National Bank, 2004-2009 (SARmn)
- Saudi Hollandi Bank
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (SARmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
BMI Banking Sector Methodology
- Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
- Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
- Table: Weighting Of Indicators
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