BMIs Q310 Egypt Retail Report predicts that the countrys retail sales will grow from EGP143.80bn (US$26.48bn)
Egypts nominal GDP is predicted to be US$216.1bn in 2010, although growth is set to slow slightly to 4.6% from 4.7% in 2009 as the economy struggles to regain its pre-crisis vigour. Average annual GDP growth of 4.7% is forecast by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from 79mn in 2010 to an estimated 84mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 53.8%, reaching US$4,163.
Egypts substantial population makes it the largest market in the Arab world, with the population of the Cairo area alone over 15mn people in 2008. Alexandria is also a large city, with a population of more than 4mn. In 2005, 63.3% of the Egyptian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.3% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2010, 65.1% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 37.4%.
Increasing urbanisation is also contributing to growth in the retail sector. In 2005, 42.3% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 43.2% in 2010.
The countrys retail market also benefits from high tourist spending, with official data showing that foreign tourist arrivals totalled almost 12.8mn in 2008, a 19% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. Despite a 5.5% drop in tourist arrivals in the first nine months of 2009, and a 6.4% drop in tourism revenue, Egypt has an enduring historical appeal that should sustain its competitiveness compared with other holiday destinations. Although BMI expects the tourist market to remain subdued over the next two years, we estimate that visitor numbers will increase further, to nearly 18mn, by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to grow by 78.5%, from US$0.47bn in 2010 to US$0.84bn by 2014. Vehicle sales are forecast to more than double, from US$9.87bn in 2009 to US$20.96bn by 2014, while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$3.21bn in 2010 to US$4.93bn, a rise of nearly 54%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2010 are predicted to amount to US$183.52bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMIs macroeconomic database is forecast to reach US$673.32bn. In 2010, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an estimated 56.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 57.2% by 2014. For Egypt, its estimated 2010 market share of 14.4% is expected to increase to 14.6% by 2014.
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Partial Table of Contents:
CONTENTS
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Egypt Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Egypt Political SWOT
- Egypt Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Egypt Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Egypt's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Egypt Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Egypt's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2010
- Table: Structure of Egypt's MGR Market - Number Of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2014
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 & 2019 (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Egypt Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Egypt Distributors For Leading Brands
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Sales, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Egypt Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Passenger Cars
- Commercial Vehicles
- Table: Egypt Commercial Vehicle Market By Segment, 2005
- Suppliers
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Autos Production, 2006-2014
- Table: Autos Sales, 2005-2014
- Trade
- Table: Autos Exports & Imports, 2006-2014
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
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