Asset and loan growth in the Slovenian banking sector is not expected to recover to pre-recession levels during our forecast period to 2014. A weak domestic demand recovery in 2010/2011, characterised by high unemployment, fiscal austerity and protracted deleveraging, will create a poor environment for credit expansion and asset quality. Tight capital markets externally, as a result of the Greek sovereign debt crisis and investor risk aversion in the eurozone, will prevent an increase of banking system leverage through foreign borrowing. While growth is expected to remain weak, continued support from the Slovenian government will ensure the sector remains broadly stable. The outlook for the Slovenian banking sector is still relatively weak, with asset growth unlikely to bounce back aggressively despite the end of the recession in 2009. The lack of a robust fundamental improvement in domestic demand in 2010/2011 in particular bodes poorly for the expansion of credit in the banking sector. As a result, we forecast asset and lending growth of just 7.0% and 5.0% respectively in 2010 - well off the double-digit rates posted pre-recession. Our outlook for the real sector is not good for growth in the banking system. While the worst of the contraction in real GDP has long passed, we stress that this does not mean there will be a rapid re-acceleration in growth in the medium term. Our core scenario for 2010 is for growth to be largely driven by base effects and an improvement in net exports, not a rapid rise in domestic demand. Private consumption, government consumption and gross fixed capital formation are not expected to bounce back sharply this year, which will keep demand for new credit low and risks to asset quality elevated. We are particularly concerned about planned fiscal austerity measures by the government, despite the likelihood that labour market conditions will remain weak. The unemployment rate spiked into the double digits as a result of the recession and we expect it be at 10.0% at the end of 2010. Fiscal support measures have ensured that unemployment has not risen even further, although with EU pressure on governments to rein in deficits as a result of the treasury crisis in Southern Europe, there is a strong probability that labour market support measures will be scaled back over the medium term. This suggests that even though we expect real GDP growth in Slovenia to rise to 2.0% this year, household loan delinquency rates could stay elevated. The outlook for corporate lending growth is unlikely to be much better. The foreign investment-fuelled capital investment spurt before 2009 is unlikely to be recovered as industrial capacity utilisation in Slovenia remains at historically low rates. While external demand is forecast to pick up in 2010, our view that the eurozone will be an underperforming economy over the long term does not bode well for an acceleration of new investment and credit demand in local industry.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
- Table: Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Levels (US$bn)
- Table: Levels At December 2009
- Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2010-2014 (%)
- Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2010
- Table: Projected Levels (EURbn)
- Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
SWOT Analysis
- Slovenia Commercial Banking SWOT
- Slovenia Political SWOT
- Slovenia Economic SWOT
- Slovenia Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Slovenia Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
- Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology
- Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Global Commercial Banking Outlook
Europe Banking Sector Outlook
- Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP Ratios
- Table: Anticipated Developments In 2010
- Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn)
- Table: Comparison Of US$ Per Capita Deposits (Late 2009)
- Table: Interbank Rates & Bond Yields
Slovenia Banking Sector Outlook
Economic Outlook
- Table: Slovenia Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Market Structure
- Table: Protagonists In Slovenia's Commercial Banking Sector
- Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe
- List Of Banks
- Table: Banks In Slovenia
- Table: Savings Banks In Slovenia
Company Profiles
- Abanka Vipa
- Table: Stock Market Indicators
- Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated)
- Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated)
- Table: Key Ratios (%)
- Banka Celje
- Table: Key Statistics For Banka Celje, 2007-2008 (EUR '000)
- Banka Koper
- Table: Key Statistics For Banka Koper, 2007-2008 (EUR '000)
- Banka Sparkasse
- Table: Key Statistics For Banka Sparkasse, 2006-2007 (EURmn)
- Volksbank
- Table: Key Statistics For Volksbank, 2006-9M09 (EURmn)
- BAWAG Banka
- Table: Key Statistics For BAWAG Banka, 2007-2008 (EUR '000)
- Dezelna Banka Slovenije
- Table: Key Statistics For Dezelna Banka Slovenije, 2006-2008 (EUR '000)
- Factor Banka
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