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Follow on Google News | New Market Study Published: South Korea Freight Transport Report Q3 2010Fast Market Research recommends "South Korea Freight Transport Report Q3 2010" from Business Monitor International, now available
In May 2010, the generally supportive macroeconomic operating environment for the South Korean ports and shipping industry was being overshadowed by one big political risk factor: the stand-off with North Korea and the possibility of some kind of military confrontation. While BMI expects deteriorating North- South Korean relations to be a big downside risk for the sector, the rest of the operating environment is positive. The local economy is enjoying a strong recovery, based on inventory re-stocking and rising consumer demand. BMI predicts 5.5% GDP growth this year, sharply up from 0.2% growth in 2009. For the five years to 2014, we believe that GDP growth will average 4.2%. BMI expects a strong recovery in South Korean airfreight this year. We expect total volume of cargo shipped by air to grow by 7.8% to 3.69mn tonnes, more than offsetting the 4.1% contraction experienced in 2009. Korean rail freight growth on the other hand will be moderate to low, reflecting the fact that most shorter-haul cargo is carried by road, and that priority on the rail system is given to passenger rather than to freight trains. This year, we see 3.5% volume growth to 45.831mn tonnes, following on from the 2009 contraction of 1.9%. In 2010, we expect total tonnage at the Port of Busan to rise by 5.5% to 211.2mn tonnes. Our mediumterm outlook for Busan tonnage is for 4.1% annual growth, fractionally behind domestic GDP. At the Port of Incheon, where volume dropped by 6.6% last year, we are expecting a sharper 'bounceback' with 6.95% growth in 2010 to 141.6mn tonnes. Annual average grow of total tonnage at Incheon will be 5.4%, faster than GDP. On the container side, Incheon will see average annual expansion of 12% over the next five years, compared to only 4% for Busan. In real terms, this year we expect total trade to grow by an impressive 9.5%, but imports will lead the way (+11.5%) with exports lagging behind a little (+8.0%). In our view, the country's free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU, and similar negotiations with the US on the one hand, and China and Japan on the other, will continue to underpin moderate-to- Clearly, the risk of further deterioration in relations between the two Koreas and even some kind of military confrontation is the major downside factor to consider. We do, however, expect the major powers led by the US to line up in support of South Korea, with China also bringing its influence with Pyongyang into play to defuse the stand-off. So while we do not at this stage 'expect the worst', it has to be noted that a prolonged period of tension may put the freight transport sector sector into 'wait and see' mode, implying that some key investment decisions will be delayed. For more information or to purchase this report, go to: - http://www.fastmr.com/ Report Table of Contents: Executive Summary SWOT Analysis - South Korea Freight Transport Industry SWOT - South Korea Political SWOT - South Korea Economic SWOT - South Korea Business Environment SWOT Market Overview - Multi-Modal - Infrastructure - Road - Rail - Air - Maritime Industry Trends And Developments - Air - Maritime Global Oil Products Price Outlook - Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q409-Q410 (US$/bbl) - Table: Oil Product Price Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl) Industry Forecast - Air Freight - Table: Air Freight, 2007-2014 - Rail Freight - Table: Rail Freight, 2007-2014 - Maritime Freight - Table: Maritime Freight - Total Tonnage Processed, 2007-2014 - Trade Overview - Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2014 - Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2014 - Table: South Korea's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) - Table: South Korea's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn) Company Profiles - Korea Express - Table: Korea Express' Financial Performance - Korail - Korean Air (KAL) - Table: KAL's Financial Performance, 2008 BMI Methodology - How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts - Transport Industry - Sources About Business Monitor International Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/ About Fast Market Research Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156. End
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