BMIs Q310 Bahrain Retail Report forecasts that the countrys retail sales will grow from an estimated BHD0.53bn (US$1.41bn) in 2010 to BHD0.58bn (US$1.54bn) by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Bahrains retail sales are an improving long-term economic outlook, growing interest in Western styles of retailing and a steady rise in disposable income.
Bahrains nominal GDP in 2010 is forecast to be US$21.26bn, with 2009s decline of 0.1% expected to turn into growth of 1.4% in 2010 as the economy begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 4.1% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population forecast to increase from 1.02mn in 2010 to 1.09mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise to US$27,576.
Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Informations tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals have risen by an average of 10-15% a year over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries. Tourism arrivals are projected to rise by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next decade.
Bahrains retail market will also continue to benefit from events such as the annual Formula One grand prix in Sakhir, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004.
In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.7% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. By 2010, 72.7% of the population is expected to be economically active but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to fall to 39.9%.
A very high level of urbanisation is contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 91% by 2010. About 89% of the population live in the two principal cities of Manama and Muharraq.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include automotives, with sales forecast to rise by more than 16% during the forecast period, from US$0.89bn in 2010 to US$1.03bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$0.46bn in 2010 to US$0.55bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 20%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to increase by more than 14%, from US$0.013bn in 2010 to US$0.015bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2010 are predicted to amount to US$183.52bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMIs macroeconomic database is forecast at US$673.32bn. In 2010, BMI predicts that South Africa and Israel will together account for an estimated 56.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 57.2% by 2014. For Bahrain, the estimated 2010 market share of 0.8% is expected to decrease to 0.6% by 2014.
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Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Bahrain Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Bahrain Political SWOT
- Bahrain Economic SWOT
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Bahrain Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Regional Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Current Trends
Business Environment Outlook
- Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Bahrain's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
- Bahrain Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Structure Of Bahrain's MGR Market - Number Of Outlets, 2004-2009
- Table: Structure Of Bahrain's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2009 (US$mn)
- Table: Structure Of Bahrain's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2004-2009 (BHDbn)
- Table: Value Of Sales Per Outlet, 2008e
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bahrain MGR Sales By Format, 2005-2014
- Table: Bahrain Grocery Retail Sales By Format, 2009 & 2019 (%)
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Bahrain Consumer Electronics SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Bahrain Distributors For Leading Brands
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2007-2014 (US$mn)
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Bahrain Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Bahrain Auto Sector - Key Players
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Bahrain Autos Sales, Exports & Imports, 2007-2014
- Industry Developments
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Country Snapshot: Bahrain Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
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