In BMI's updated Americas Business Environment Ratings (BER) for Q310, Canada remains in second place in the expanded regional matrix, a position to which it rose in the previous quarter, having moved past Puerto Rico. On a global scale, Canada ranks third, after the US and Germany, out of the 82 markets now surveyed. However, cost-containment pressures, both on a federal and provincial level, will continue to pose an issue to manufacturers of novel products. In fact, according to an Rx&D International Report on Access to Medicines examining 25 countries within the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and 82 newly approved products, Canada only ranked 20th in 2008/09. The report found that only 56% of drugs were recommended for public reimbursement, which is considerably below the average for the OECD in the same period - namely 73%.
Additionally, in the 2010 version of the Special 301 Submission prepared by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), Canada was again included on the Priority Watch List. The country stands criticised over its failure to establish patent term restoration (PTR), the absence of an effective right of appeal, and some aspects of its patent laws. BMI cautions that Canada's appearance on this list will deal a blow to the pharmaceutical and biotech industry within the country, particularly since the authorities are trying to encourage investment into this sector.
Still, the absolute market size (around US$21bn) and the high per-capita spending on pharmaceuticals (calculated at US$626 in 2009) will continue to represent significant draws to manufacturers of novel products. Additionally, the government has drafted legislation to create a path for biosimilars and proposed a new approvals process with a greater emphasis on post-market evaluation. In local currency terms, we believe that pharmaceutical market growth in the 2009-2014 period will be solid, posting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.31%, while per-capita drug spending will reach US$686. The fastest-growing market segment will, however, be generics, which are expected to account for over 37% of the total market by value, up from around 30% presently.
In the meantime, a second decline in US economic activity would have major ripple effects in Canada. While we do not believe it has reached bubble status, the Canadian housing market is looking increasingly frothy, which could put pressure on the banking sector and economic activity, should interest rates rise aggressively in 2011. We forecast 2010 real GDP growth in Canada to come in at 3.1%, having revised our previous expectation of 2.7%. However, we are maintaining our expectation for a slowdown to 2.4% in 2011, with domestic consumer activity likely to peter out as economic stimulus programmes are unwound and as weakness in the US hurts external demand. This will also translate into lower finances for healthcare and pharmaceutical reimbursement, with private spending levels also to be constrained, thus impacting the over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical market segment.
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Partial Table of Contents:
CONTENTS
- Canada Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Canada Political SWOT
- Canada Economic SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Americas - Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings, Q310
- Limits of Potential Returns
- Risks to Realisation Of Returns
Canada - Market Summary
- Pharmacovigilance
- Recent Regulatory Developments
- Biosimilars
- OTC Medicines
- Intellectual Property Regime
- International Collaboration
- Pricing Regime
- Reimbursement Regime
- Recent Pricing and Reimbursement Developments
Industry Developments
- Epidemiology
- Recent Public Health Developments
- Healthcare Sector
- International Comparison
- Health Expenditure
- Table: Sustainability Of Public Health Expenditure And Pharmaceutical Approval Indicators
- National Pharmaceuticals Strategy
- Pharmaceutical Retail
- Research and Development Sector
- Biotechnology
- Medical Devices Industry
- Recent Developments in the Medical Devices Industry
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Canada - GDP by Expenditure
- Prescription Drug Market Forecast
- Patented Product Market Forecast
- Generic Drug Market Forecast
- OTC Medicine Market Forecast
- Medical Device Market Forecast
- Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts
- Other Healthcare Data
Competitive Landscape
- Pharmaceutical Industry
- Pharmaceutical Re-import Policy
- Recent Pharmaceutical Company Developments
Company Profiles
- Indigenous Manufacturers
- Apotex
- Leading Multinational Manufacturers
- Pfizer
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Sanofi-Aventis
- Merck and Co
- Novartis
Country Snapshot: Canada Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000-2003
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
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