Greece's much-publicised fiscal and debt problems, which have prompted European Union intervention to save it from default, are definitely a dark cloud for the country's ports and shipping sector. Yet paradoxical as it may seem, there are also some indications of a silver lining. According to a report in the Times of London on May 29, the Greek shipping sector was optimistic about its immediate future. The article noted that Greek shipping interests had nearly 65mn tonnes of tanker and product carrier hulls on order in Asian yards 'to meet an unflagging demand in China and India for fuel, coal and iron ore'. The latest annual report by the Union of Greek Shipowners (UGS) noted that 'a dynamic increase in demand for raw materials has sustained the dry bulk freight market'. Additionally, the announcement in late May that the government was about to launch a tender for the Thriassio container hub concession reinforced BMI's core view that the dire state of the Greek public finances makes public-private partnerships (PPPs) the only viable option for the Greek government to move ahead with planned infrastructure projects. The government's programme to reduce the deficit and implement structural changes specifically mentioned wider use of PPPs.
Chinese shipping company COSCO Pacific has expressed interest in the tender, as the company is seeking wider access in Greek transport infrastructure in order to improve intermodal links with its container terminal in Piraeus.
The immediate outlook is difficult. BMI is predicting that Greek GDP will contract by 2% again in 2010, after a 2% fall in 2009. Unemployment in double digits and public sector wage cuts will hurt domestic demand. In 2011 the economy will be flat. We are predicting average annual GDP growth over the next five years of only 0.6%. The government of Prime Minister George Papandreou will struggle to deliver the necessary spending cuts, and the rest of this year is likely to be politically turbulent with significant labour unrest.
2010 will be a standstill year at Greece's main ports. At the Port of Thessaloniki, where volume fell by 14.8% in 2008 and by another 2.3% in 2009, this year there will be marginal growth - volume will grow 0.2% to 15.718mn tonnes. At the Port of Piraeus, where there was a massive fall of 47.9% in 2008 and a 10.7% recovery in 2009, this year's growth will also be only 0.2%, taking volume handled to 11.621mn tonnes. Box traffic at the country's two key ports will be a little more dynamic, but still constrained by the Greek economic crisis.
The value of Greek trade collapsed by 15.7% in real terms last year, and will remain stuck at that low level in 2010. It will only begin to grow again in 2011. Across the five-year forecast period BMI believes average annual growth will be a very modest 2.6%, which nevertheless will be ahead of GDP's slow 0.6% annual expansion. We expect exports to be slightly more dynamic than imports in the five-year time horizon.
In slightly contrarian fashion, BMI believes that the main risks to our Greek shipping forecast lie on the upside. This is because we believe that the worst of the negative impact of the domestic economic crisis on the shipping sector has already been 'priced in'. By definition, the industry has always been outward looking and linked to global trade. We believe the combination of moderate improvement in the global economy with lower asset prices and a forced opening to the private sector in the ports and shipping business will create a potential for new investment and opportunities.
For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- http://www.fastmr.com/
Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Greece Shipping SWOT
Global Overview
- Container Shipping Overview
- Dry Bulk Overview
- Liquid Bulk Sector Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Market Overview
- Port Of Piraeus
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Developments
- Multi-Modal Links
- Port Of Thessaloniki
- Overview
- Terminals, Storage And Equipment
- Expansions And Development
- Multi-Modal Links
Industry Forecast
- Total Tonnage
- Container Throughput
- Trade
- Table: Major Port Data, 2007-2014
- Table: Trade Overview, 2007-2014
- Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Greece's Main Import Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
- Table: Greece's Main Export Partners, 2002-2008 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
- A.P. MOLLER-MAERSK
- Mediterranean Shipping Company
- CMA CGM
- Evergreen Line
- China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- Neptune Orient Lines (& APL)
- China Shipping (CSCL)
- Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK)
- Hanjin Shipping
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL)
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
