Romania Agribusiness Report Q3 2010: New research report available at Fast Market Research

July 7, 2010 - PRLog -- We expect 2009's devastating economic contraction of around 7.0% to continue to cast a shadow over both supply and demand for most agricultural commodities in 2009. With a large proportion of Romanian producers independent and modestly sized, there were some casualties in 2009 and a resulting drop in output in poultry, pork, beef, milk and sugar. There are nevertheless signs of recovery, although 2010's fiscal austerity plan may hit demand.

* Wheat and corn production expected to increase by 30.5% and 3.9% year-on-year respectively, with barley to suffer, falling 9.2%. 2009/10 corn production is forecast to increase to 8.3mn tonnes following release of more positive Eurostat data for 2009.
* Rapid rise in rice production to continue in 2009/10 as Western European investors take advantage of Romania's flat terrain, water abundance and warm weather. Production expected to rise to 88,000 tonnes, up 27.1% year-on-year.
* Milk prices started rising again at the end of the summer and continued to do so until at least February, which should encourage a boost in production in 2009/10. Production in 2009/10 is forecast at 5.38mn tonnes, rising to 6.07mn tonnes by 2014.
* GDP growth expected at 1.1% in 2010, rising to 3.9% in 2011.
* 2010 has seen state aid for poultry and pork industries removed as per EU conditions. Poultry and pork production to fall 2.0% and 2.8% year-on-year in 2010 respectively.
* Two small outbreaks of bird flu in 2010 highlight the risk that bird flu continues to pose to Romanian poultry production. A serious epidemic as happened in 2005 and 2006 would significantly depress production and poses a downside risk to our forecasts.
* The 'fast food tax' appears to have stalled, with the health ministry going quiet on a plan expected to come into force in March. Until an announcement appears to the contrary, BMI continues to assume the tax will surface in some form. Should the proposal go forward, products such as fizzy drinks and confectionery are likely to face the levy.

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Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Romania Agricultural SWOT
- Romania Political SWOT
- Romania Economic SWOT
- Romania Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Romania Livestock Outlook
- Table: Romania - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Pork Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade
- Romania Rice Outlook
- Table: Romania - Rice Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Rice Production & Consumption
- Romania Sugar Outlook
- Romania Sugar Outlook
- Table: Romania - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade
- Romania Grains Outlook
- Table: Romania - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Barley Production, Consumption & Trade
- Romania Dairy Outlook
- Table: Romania - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Milk Production & Consumption
- Table: Romania - Butter Production, Consumption & Trade
- Table: Romania - Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade
Competitive Landscape
- Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders
- Table: Agribusiness Suppliers
- Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers
Commodity Price Analysis
- Grains Update
- Corn
- Table: Corn
- Rice
- Table: Rice
- Soy
- Table: Soybean
- Wheat
- Table: Wheat
- Softs Update
- Cocoa
- Table: Cocoa
- Coffee
- Table: Coffee
- Milk
- Table: Milk
- Sugar
- Table: Sugar
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis
- Industry Forecast Scenario - Food
- Food Consumption
- Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Confectionery
- Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Canned Food
- Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Trade
- Table: Food, Drink and Tobacco Trade Indicators -- Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
- Industry Forecast Scenario - Retail
- Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts
- Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format -- Historical Data and Forecasts
- Macroeconomic Forecast
- Table: Romania - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Industry Trend Analysis
- Table: Romania - Corn Production, Consumption & Trade
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

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