Ukraine's pharmaceutical market is moving toward strong recovery in 2010, with BMI forecasting a 21.5% US dollar rebound to follow a 23.7% slide in a disastrous 2009 for Ukraine's economy. We forecast a 22.13% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2009-2014. We believe these rosy forecasts will be driven by out of pocket spending, as the prospects for the implementation of even basic insurance covering pharmaceuticals look poor in the near term. In addition, Ukraine's economy remains fragile and subject to external shocks.
In April, Ukraine published a draft law on compulsory medical insurance and invited public consultation on the issue. The reform is long overdue and in theory the institution of an insurance-based system is a matter of political consensus. Such a system will need to overcome endemic corruption and will rely on collecting insurance contributions from salaries - requiring legal salary declarations as well as transparent management of healthcare funds. In addition, political tumult could further delay the ultimate passage of new legislation and its implementation. The opposition Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT) has sought to remove the new health minister, Zinoviy Mitnik over allegations he 'inefficiently' managed spending on medicines and medical equipment as deputy minister in a previous government. More quietly, the government has indicated it would apply a unified 10% VAT on pharmaceuticals from 2011.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government has said it will boost healthcare spending to UAH9bn (US$1.4bn) leading to an increase in healthcare spending from 2.9% to 3.64% of GDP according to the government's calculations. These levels are still low, even compared to dismal levels of spending in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). President Viktor Yanukovych spoke in mid-May of the need for the introduction of an insurance-based healthcare system, echoing the line taken by the previous president and prime minister. But action on implementing the system does not appear imminent. Ukraine's political deadlock continues to stymie any substantive changes in the healthcare sector. As noted by local media, recent data from World Health Organisation (WHO) found that per-capita healthcare spending in Ukraine was US$159, lower than the figure of US$161 for Kyrgyzstan.
One side effect of Ukraine's dysfunctional politics is poor regulatory oversight. The previous government fought to impose price controls and use the country's Anti-Monopoly Committee (AMKU) to prevent price gouging. Research published in May 2010 found that pharmacies were marking up some products by 150-200%. Meanwhile, media reports in March claimed that a mere three employees were monitoring drug prices at AMKU. More often the government seeks to punish a few high-profile targets, such as Sanofi-Aventis, which was reportedly fined UAH200,000 (US$25,000) for alleged anti-competitive practices involving a product made by local producer Farmak. Boehringer Ingelheim was hit with a UAH1mn (US$126,000)
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Ukraine Pharmaceutical And Healthcare Industry SWOT
- Ukraine Political SWOT
- Ukraine Economic SWOT
- Ukraine Business Environment SWOT
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Rating
- Table: Central and Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings, Q310
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risk to Realisation Of Returns
Ukraine - Market Summary
Regulatory Regime
- Intellectual Property Issues
- Pricing and Reimbursement Issues
- Other Market Entry Barriers
Industry Developments
- Medical Devices
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Overall Market Forecast
- Key Growth Factors - Industry
- Key Growth Factors - Macroeconomic
- Table: Ukraine - Economic Activity
- Prescription Market Forecast
- Generics Market Forecast
- OTC Market Forecast
- Export/Import Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
- Manufacturing Sector
- Wholesale
- Retail
Company Monitor
- Arterium
- Gedeon Richter
- Krka
- Lek (Novartis/Sandoz)
Country Snapshot: Ukraine Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
- Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
- Weighting
- Table: Weighting Of Components
- Sources
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