The Q310 BMI Venezuela Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow by an average of 33.7% a year in local currency terms between 2010 and 2014, from VEF208.46bn (US$97.20bn)
Venezuela's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$371.70bn in 2010, with 2009's decline of 3.3% expected to worsen to a contraction of 3.8% in 2010 as the country continues to suffer the effects of a prolonged economic slowdown. Average annual GDP growth of just 1.5% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014. With the population increasing from an expected 29.4mn in 2010 to a forecast 31.6mn by 2014, consumer spending per capita is forecast to increase from US$4,754 in 2010 to US$6,651 by 2014.
Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.8% in the 20-44 age range important to retail sales. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.5% and 65.5% of the population is expected to be economically active.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to grow from US$0.41bn in 2010 to US$0.56bn by 2014, up by more than 37%; while automotive sales are forecast to increase by nearly 73% following the severe slump in 2009, from US$0.38bn in 2010 to US$0.66bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are expected to show growth of 25%, rising from US$3.05bn in 2010 to US$3.81bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil together are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010; with the two countries plus Venezuela likely to account for 85.3% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. For Venezuela, the predicted 2010 market share of 8.3% is expected to soar to 17.3% by 2014.
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Report Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Venezuela Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Venezuela Political SWOT
- Venezuela Economic SWOT
- Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Venezuela's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation of Returns
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Organised Retail
- Macroeconomic Activity
- Table: Venezuela Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Latin America Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Venezuela's MGR Market - Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2001-2008
- Table: Venezuela's MGR Market - Sales By Format (US$bn), 2001-2008
- Table: Average Annual Value Sales By Format, 2008
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Venezuela's MGR Market - Sales By Format, 2005-2014
- Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2009 & 2019
- Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
- Venezuela Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Venezuela Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Table: Venezuela Vehicle Production, 2008-2009
- Table: Venezuela - Car Sales, 2008/2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Venezuela - Production Forecast By Vehicle Type, 2007-2014
- Table: Venezuela - Sales Forecast By Vehicle Type, 2007-2014
- Trade
- Table: Venezuela's Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2014
- Economic Contribution
- Table: Venezuela's Autos Sector - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2007-2014 (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
- Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Venezuela Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources
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