The Q310 BMI Brazil Retail report forecasts that the country's retail sales will grow from BRL1,256.23bn (US$684.03bn)
Brazil's nominal GDP is predicted to be US$1,884bn in 2010, with 2009's decline of 0.2% expected to turn into growth of 5.3% in 2010 as the economy recovers. Average annual GDP growth of 3.3% is predicted by BMI between 2010 and 2014.
With the population increasing from around 197mn in 2010 to an estimated 206mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 38.1% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$13,180. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from an expected US$6,080 in 2010 to US$8,609 by 2014.
The national monthly minimum wage rose by 26% in real terms between 2003 and 2006, and in 2010 the average annual salary is expected to be US$10,554. The lifestyles of middle and upper-income groups increasingly mirror those of their counterparts in developed countries and overall purchasing power has been increasing. However, income inequality is a major concern, with consumption patterns varying significantly according to salary. More than a third of the population lives on or below the poverty line and outside the main urban areas the proportion is closer to half.
In 2005, 67.8% of the Brazilian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.3% in the 20-44 age range, which is vital for retail sales. More than 84% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 88%, with 39.5% in the 20- 44 age band and 66.9% of the population expected to be economically active.
The non-grocery sector is outperforming the food sector as consumers increase their spending on household items and durable goods such as furniture, domestic appliances, cars and clothes. Easier access to credit is also proving to be good news for the retail sector. There were 118mn credit cards in Brazil in 2007, up from 44mn in 2003, according to Banco Central do Brasil (BCB).
Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales predicted to rise from an expected US$205.35bn in 2010 to US$291.67bn by 2014, a rise of 42.0%. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are forecast by BMI to increase from an expected US$5.50bn in 2010 to US$8.11bn by 2014, up by 47.5%. Automotive sales are forecast to increase by 50.4% during the same period to reach US$99.03bn. The consumer electronics sector is predicted to grow by 39.4% between 2010 and 2014, from US$20.88bn to US$29.10bn.
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2010 are expected to reach US$1,166bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI's macroeconomic database, is predicted to be US$2,590bn. Mexico and Brazil together are expected to account for an estimated 74.3% of regional retail sales in 2010; with the two countries plus Venezuela likely to account for 85.3% of all retail sales in the region by 2014. For Brazil, the predicted 2010 market share of 58.6% is expected to fall to 54.3% by 2014.
For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- http://www.fastmr.com/
Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Brazil Retail Business Environment SWOT
- Brazil Political SWOT
- Brazil Economic SWOT
Business Environment Outlook
- Latin America
- Table: Latin America Retail Business Environment Ratings
- Brazil's Retail Rating
- Limits To Potential Returns
- Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Market Overview
- Current Trends
- Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Retail Growth Outlook
- Table: Key Retail Indicators, 2007-2014
- Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2010f
- Macroeconomic Outlook
- Table: Brazil - Economic Activity, 2007-2014
Regional Retail Outlook
- Table: Latin America Retail Trends, 2007-2014
- Table: Latin America Retail Sales By % Share, 2007-2014
- Regional Retail Trends
Mass Grocery Retail
- Brazil Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Structure of Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number of Outlets
- Structure of Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (US$bn)
- Structure of Brazil's Mass Grocery Retail Market - Sales by Format (BRLbn)
- Average Annual Sales Value by Format - 2009
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts
- Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (%)
- Industry Developments
- Investing In Expansion
- CBD Diversifying Away From Food
Consumer Electronics
- Brazil Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
- Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
- Industry Developments
Automotives
- Brazil Autos Industry SWOT
- Market Overview
- Brazil - Passenger Car Sales, 2008 - 2009
- New Investments
- Brazil - Passenger Car Production 2008- 2009
- Brazil - Usage Of Sugar And Ethanol
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Brazil Autos Sales By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Production
- Brazil Autos Production By Segment - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Trade
- Brazil Autos Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts
- Industry Developments
Country Snapshot: Brazil Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
-
Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
