Although the country is still far behind in achieving its full production potential, India's mining industry will emerge from a 4.65% contraction in 2009 to resume growth in 2010 by 4.18% to INR1,490.3bn (US34.34bn), according to BMI's latest India Mining Report.
India's much-discussed coal regulator is yet to surface, despite inclusion of the body in the 2010-2011 budget and reassurances from the coal ministry that it will be established by mid-March 2010. It is yet to be seen whether the regulator will be given any teeth or if its jurisdiction will be sufficiently wide to effectively resolve price conflicts and regulate a greater number of players in the market. In any case, the establishment of the regulator could be a watershed for the country's coal sector if it is able to shake stateowned Coal India Limited (CIL)'s control on prices, which is by no means inevitable even at this stage.
Indeed, despite a cocktail of legal adjustments to entice foreign investment and a liberalisation programme on the cards, BMI does not see the mining sector surpassing the 5% growth expected in 2011 over the forecast period. The sector will be worth INR1,710bn (US$41.71bn)
The escalation in violence between the state and Maoist rebels has shaken the government into making regulatory concessions that have angered the mining industry. A draft act includes plans to provide communities that relinquish land to mining projects with equity in the firms or projects, the government revealed in May 2010. The execution of the law is doubtful, however, and many of the rebels are known to have developed a deep-seated hostility towards the mining industry. Nonetheless, the government has offered to rescind MoUs with mining firms in order to freeze hostilities and ease negotiation. By the same token, coal mining in dense forest areas has been banned, which may result in up to 35% of some of the country's largest coal reserves to be off-limits.
Iron ore cargoes began to move again on rail lines from Orissa, after more than a month of suspension imposed by the government in an attempt to shatter the complacency of illegal miners. Steel producers in several states suffered as the government suspended rail transport between a number of locations as it suspected the cargoes had been illegally mined.
Nonetheless, the latest quarter saw a number of developments for domestic firms. In CIL's continuing drive to procure coal at competitive prices the firm shortlisted 24 overseas companies with which to form joint ventures or alliances. National Aluminium Company (Nalco) finally secured the lease for the Pattangi mines in Koraput, which are believed to harbour more than 70mn tonnes of bauxite. The company expects to bring the mine online within three to five years of final approval. Hindustan Zinc Limited (HZL), meanwhile, is set to become the world's largest integrated producer of lead and zinc by Q311 upon completion of its 100,000tpa Dariba lead smelter and Sindesar Khurd mine projects. The company will have a combined smelting capacity of 1.064mn tpa.
For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
- http://www.fastmr.com/
Partial Table of Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- India Political SWOT
- India Economic SWOT
- India Business Environment SWOT
Global Mining Outlook
- Table: Rio Tinto's Capital And Major Evaluation Projects For 2010
- BMI Views
- Risks To Outlook
Industry Trends And Developments
- Market Overview
- Regulatory Structure
- Latest Developments
- Table: Mines In India
Key Projects
- Iron
- Coal
- Table: Coal Resources By State, 2007 (mn tonnes)
- Gold
- Copper
- Lead, Zinc And Silver
- Diamonds
- Uranium
- Bauxite And Alumina
Mining Business Environment
- Asia Pacific Overview - Asia Pacific
- Table: Asia Pacific Mining Business Environment Ratings
- India's Business Environment Rating
- Legal Framework
- Table: BMI Legal Framework Ratings
- Labour Force
- Table: Demographic Indicators
- Foreign Investment Policy
- Table: India's Annual FDI Inflows
- Table: Asia's FDI Inflows
Political Environment
- Domestic Politics
- Foreign Policy
- Long-Term Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Commodities Forecast - Copper To Average US$6,500/tonne In 2010
- Table: BMI Copper Forecast
- Table: Copper, 2005-2011
- Aluminium - Downside Risks To Average Price of US$2,100/tonne In 2010
- Table: BMI Aluminium Forecast
- Table: Aluminium, 2005-2011
- Lead - Downside Risks To Average Price of US$2,300/tonne In 2010
- Table: BMI Lead Update
- Table: Lead, 2005-2011
- India - Mining Industry Forecast
- Table: India's Mining Industry, 2007-2014
Competitive Landscape
- Table: India Mining - Key Players
- Company Monitor
- Coal India (CIL)
- National Mineral Development Corp (NMDC)
- Vedanta Resources
- Hindustan Copper (HCL)
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth And Exchange Rates, 2009-2012
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed States' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
- Table: Emerging Markets' Real GDP Growth, 2009-2012
Country Snapshot: India Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
-
Full Table of Contents is available at:
-- http://www.fastmr.com/
About Business Monitor International
Business Monitor International (BMI) offers a comprehensive range of products and services designed to help senior executives, analysts and researchers assess and better manage operating risks, and exploit business opportunities, across 175 markets. BMI offers three main areas of expertise: Country Risk BMI's country risk and macroeconomic forecast portfolio includes weekly financial market reports, monthly regional Monitors, and in-depth quarterly Business Forecast Reports. Industry Analysis BMI covers a total of 17 industry verticals through a portfolio of services, including in-depth quarterly Country Forecast Reports. View more research from Business Monitor International at http://www.fastmr.com/
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is an online aggregator and distributor of market research and business information. We represent the world's top research publishers and analysts and provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available.
For more information about these or related research reports, please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
