New Market Research Report: Serbia Autos Report Q3 2010

June 26, 2010 - PRLog -- Despite a recession-induced dip in the domestic market in 2009 and the likelihood of slow growth over the coming 18 months, Serbia's automotive sector continues to draw in a steady flow of investment. Sales have not fallen as much as might have been expected, given the economic downturn and the country's well-publicised economic problems. Recovery will be unspectacular at first, but over the medium term, potential is good. Meanwhile, Serbia is benefitting from the quickening pace of its EU accession process and increasing awareness of its competitive advantages as a manufacturing centre - cost, location and incentives.

According to the IMF, the Serbian economy shrank 2.9% last year, less than the government's forecast of a 3% drop. A slow but steady recovery is expected over the next two years, with BMI forecasting real growth or 1.0% in 2010 and 3.5% in 2011. This is likely to stimulate a gentle recovery in vehicle sales. Substantial growth should be evident in 2011, when sales are expected to rise to 62,536 units. In the longer term, we expect sales to outstrip pre-crisis levels from 2012. By the end of the five-year forecast period, we forecast new car sales of 76,391 units in 2014.

Downside risks include inflation, which topped 8% last year, during a recession, and which, at 4.8%, will outstrip growth by some way over the next couple of years, according to the IMF forecasts. Other risks are delays in Serbia's EU accession process, which has probably played a key part in attracting investment; a slowdown in already sluggish economic reform; and another dip in the international economy.

Meanwhile, the Serbian government is keen to establish the country as an automotive hub, offering incentives and advertising the relatively low costs. If it succeeds, and particularly if Fiat's investment in Zastava Automobiles investment is a success, Serbia could attract a range of component manufacturers to supply the carmaker, and potentially the markets around, including Hungary and Romania, where vehicle manufacturing is already well-established, but where costs are higher.

South Korean firm Yura Corporation has bought troubled Serbian electrical installation maker Zastava Elektro for around EUR3mn, just-auto.com reported in April 2010. Yura supplies automakers including Hyundai Motor and Kia Motors, which are both increasing production, hence Yura's investment. Serbian Economy Minister Mladan Dinkic has said that 90% of output will be exported, B92 reported. Despite the new investments, not all are confident of Serbia's position. Carol Thomas, an analyst at JD Power, told the WSJ that Serbia had several disadvantages that could outweigh its lower costs, including the country's location and poor infrastructure. Production stood at 13,800 units in 2008 and despite a strong recovery from 2011, we expect total production to reach just under 17,100 units by the end of 2014.

For more information or to purchase this report, go to:
-  http://www.fastmr.com/prod/71175_serbia_autos_report_q3_2...

Report Table of Contents:

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Autos Industry SWOT
SWOT Analysis
- Serbia Political SWOT
- Serbia Economic SWOT
- Serbia Business Environment SWOT
Regional Overview
- Crisis At Toyota
- Table: Toyota Vehicle Recall Timeline
- Toyota's European Dream
- Opportunities For Some
- Risk To The Industry
Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Western, Central And Eastern Europe Business Environment Ratings
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Production And Sales
- Table: Serbia Autos Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
- Trade
- Table: Serbia Autos Historical Data And Forecasts (CBUs unless otherwise stated)
Competitive Landscape
- Zastava
- Automotive Parts
- Commercial Vehicle Market
Company Monitor
- PSA Peugeot Citroen Regional Profile
- Financial Woes
- Focus On Faurecia
- Merger Opportunity
- Eye On Eastern Europe
Company Profiles
- Zastava Automobile
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data
- Section 1: Population
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Section 2: Education And Healthcare
- Table: Education, 2000-2001
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
- Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
BMI Forecast Modelling
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Sources

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